澳大利亚消费者通胀预期从6月份的两年峰值5.0%降至2025年7月的4.7%，这表明在劳动力市场持续强劲的情况下，通胀风险前景更加平衡。不过，目前尚不清楚这种转变是否预示着一种持久的趋势。2025年第一季度，年通货膨胀率稳定在2.4%，为四年来的最低水平，连续第三个季度保持不变。与此同时，澳大利亚储备银行首选的核心指标——削减后的平均CPI为2.9%，为2021年底以来的最低水平，但仍高于澳大利亚储备银行2%至3%的中点目标。5月份，月度CPI同比上涨2.1%，为2024年10月以来的最低涨幅。澳大利亚储备银行表示，在决定通胀是否稳步回归2.5%的目标之前，将等待更多数据。

Consumer inflation expectations in Australia eased to 4.7% in July 2025 from June’s two-year peak of 5.0%, suggesting a more balanced outlook for inflation risks amid continued labor market strength. Still, it's unclear whether this shift signals a lasting trend. In Q1 2025, annual inflation held steady at 2.4%—a four-year low—unchanged for the third consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred core measure, stood at 2.9%, the lowest since late 2021 but still above the RBA’s 2–3% midpoint target. In May, monthly CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year, the softest pace since October 2024. The RBA has signaled it will wait for more data before deciding whether inflation is firmly on track to sustainably return to its 2.5% target.

周四，澳元兑美元汇率跌至0.650美元以下，回落了前一交易日的涨幅，因为低于预期的劳动力数据强化了对澳大利亚储备银行8月份降息的预期。澳大利亚统计局报告称，6月份失业率升至4.3%的三年多来高点，结束了五个月的停滞状态，超过了4.1%的预测，而就业仅增长了2K，远低于预期的20000增长。疲软的劳动力市场印刷品增加了经济放缓的证据，加强了政策放松的理由。随着政策制定者权衡失业率上升与通胀疲软，市场目前预计央行8月份会议降息25个基点的可能性为89%。增加压力的是，美元因美国国债收益率上升而上涨，这提振了对美国资产的需求，但其上涨受到对美联储独立性的担忧的限制。特朗普总统后来淡化了解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性，缓解了一些市场担忧。

The Australian dollar weakened to below $0.650 on Thursday, pulling back gains from the previous session, as weaker-than-expected labor data reinforced expectations of an RBA rate cut in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose to an over three-year high of 4.3% in June, ending its five-month hold and exceeding forecasts of 4.1%, while employment increased by just 2K, well below the expected 20K gain. The soft labor market print added to evidence of a slowing economy, strengthening the case for policy easing. Markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the central bank's August meeting, as policymakers weigh rising unemployment against subdued inflation. Adding to the pressure, the dollar gained on rising Treasury yields that boost demand for US assets, but its advance was limited by concerns over Fed independence. President Trump later downplayed the likelihood of firing Fed Chair Powell, easing some market fears.

澳大利亚在2025年6月仅增加了2000个工作岗位，使总就业人数达到1464万人，远低于市场预期的2万人增长，这是自2024年10月以来的最低增幅。最新数据是在5月份向下修正了1100个工作岗位后得出的。兼职就业人数增加了40200人，达到456万人的历史新高，比上个月修正后的43000人大幅反弹。然而，全职就业人数下降了38200人，至1006万人，扭转了5月份修订后的41900人的增长。就业人口比稳定在64.2%，而参与率小幅上升至67.1%。按年计算，总就业人数增长了286300人，即2.0%，反映出尽管月度数据疲软，但劳动力市场仍在持续增长。

Australia added just 2,000 jobs in June 2025, bringing total employment to 14.64 million—well below market expectations for a 20,000 gain and marking the weakest increase since October 2024. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised loss of 1,100 jobs in May. Part-time employment jumped by 40,200 to a record high of 4.56 million, rebounding sharply from a revised 43,000 drop in the previous month. However, full-time employment fell by 38,200 to 10.06 million, reversing a revised gain of 41,900 in May. The employment-to-population ratio held steady at 64.2%, while the participation rate edged up to 67.1%. On a yearly basis, total employment rose by 286,300, or 2.0%, reflecting continued labor market growth despite the softer monthly figures.

澳大利亚6月失业率攀升至3年半高点。澳大利亚6月份就业率仅小幅上升，失业率跃升至2021年底以来的最高水平，这一令人惊讶的疲软报告增加了下个月降息的理由。

Australia unemployment rate climbs to 3-1/2-year high in June.Australian employment rose only marginally in June as the jobless rate jumped to the highest since late 2021, a surprisingly weak report that adds to the case for a cut in interest rates next month.