周一,澳元走强至0.651美元左右,扭转了早些时候的跌幅,因为投资者在中东战争升级的担忧缓解的迹象下削减了风险头寸。伊朗和以色列已经交火四天了,但由于伊朗没有威胁要关闭霍尔木兹海峡,对更广泛的地区战争的担忧有所缓解。霍尔木兹是一条关键的石油路线,其封锁可能会将美国卷入冲突。包括中国和俄罗斯在内的几个国家已表示愿意进行调解,而特朗普总统则敦促双方达成协议,这增加了和平的希望。然而,5月份中国经济数据喜忧参半,限制了涨幅,零售销售的强劲被工业产出的疲软所抵消。现在注意力转向周四公布的澳大利亚劳动力数据,预测显示将增加25000个工作岗位,失业率稳定在4.1%。劳动力市场的弹性使人们对7月份的降息产生了怀疑,目前的降息幅度为75%;更强劲的报告可能会减少这些赌注,提振澳元。
The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.651 on Monday, reversing earlier losses as investors pared back risk-off positions amid signs of easing concerns of an escalation of the Middle East war. Iran and Israel have been exchanging fire for four days, but fears of a broader regional war eased since Iran has not threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route whose blockade could draw the US into the conflict. Several countries, including China and Russia, have offered to mediate, while President Trump is urging both sides to reach a deal, raising hopes for peace. However, mixed Chinese economic data for May limited gains, with stronger retail sales offset by weaker industrial output. Attention now turns to Australia’s labor data due Thursday, with forecasts showing a 25,000 job increase and steady 4.1% unemployment. The labor market’s resilience casts doubt on a July rate cut, currently priced at 75%; a stronger report could reduce those bets and boost the Aussie.