日本央行会议纪要暗示关税协议后加息，澳元/日元延续下跌。日本央行今天公布的6月会议纪要证实，一旦贸易不确定性消退，几位政策制定者愿意恢复加息。虽然会议纪要有些过时——会议是在美日贸易协定宣布之前举行的——但它们表明，人们越来越一致地认为，央行可能会比以前预期的更快地回到正常化道路上。

BoJ minutes hint at hikes post-tariff deal, AUD/JPY extends decline.BoJ's June meeting minutes, released today, confirmed that several policymakers were open to resuming rate hikes once trade uncertainty subsides. While the minutes are somewhat dated — the meeting took place before the announcement of the US–Japan trade agreement — they reveal a growing consensus that the central bank may return to a normalization path sooner than previously expected.

随着注意力转向澳大利亚储备银行下周的政策决定，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率保持在4.21%左右，接近四周低点。市场越来越倾向于在8月12日的会议上降息25个基点，这将使现金利率降至3.6%。在6月份核心通胀率降至2.7%后，对宽松政策的预期有所增强，这完全在澳大利亚储备银行的2-3%目标范围内。额外的压力来自劳动力市场疲软的迹象，包括失业率上升和工资增长放缓，交易员认为降息的可能性接近95%。支持这一观点的是，澳新银行澳大利亚招聘广告在7月份下降了1.0%，这是自2月份以来的最大跌幅，标志着劳动力市场逐渐放缓的持续迹象。然而，7月份私营部门活动有所回升，这表明潜在的经济弹性。综合采购经理人指数升至53.8，为2022年4月以来的最快增速，而服务业采购经理人指数达到54.1，为2024年3月以来的最高水平。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held around 4.21%, near a four-week low, as attention shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision next week. Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the August 12 meeting, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.6%. Expectations for easing have strengthened after core inflation slowed to 2.7% in June—well within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Additional pressure comes from signs of a softening labor market, including rising unemployment and subdued wage growth, with traders assigning nearly a 95% chance of a rate cut. Supporting this view, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 1.0% in July, the steepest drop since February, marking continued signs of a gradual labor market slowdown. However, in a sign of underlying economic resilience, private sector activity picked up in July. The Composite PMI rose to 53.8, the fastest pace since April 2022, while the Services PMI reached 54.1, the highest since March 2024.

周二，澳元跌至0.646美元左右，因对降息的预期越来越高，抑制了市场情绪。人们普遍预计，澳大利亚储备银行将在即将于8月12日结束的为期两天的政策会议上将现金利率降至3.60%，理由是核心通胀放缓——澳大利亚储备银行的首选指标——6月份降至2.7%，在央行2-3%的目标范围内。市场现在已经将澳大利亚储备银行将降息的可能性估计为近95%，并预计到明年初将再降息两次。在经济方面，澳新银行澳大利亚就业广告指数创下了自2025年7月2月以来的最大月度跌幅，这是今年迄今为止的第四次下降，标志着劳动力市场状况逐渐降温。与此同时，综合采购经理人指数飙升至2022年4月以来的最高水平，这得益于服务业表现强劲和制造业活动恢复增长。

The Australian dollar fell to around $0.646 on Tuesday, as mounting expectations of an interest rate cut dampened market sentiment. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely anticipated to lower the cash rate to 3.60% at its upcoming two-day policy meeting ending on August 12, citing a slowdown in core inflation — the RBA’s preferred gauge — which eased to 2.7% in June, comfortably within the central bank’s 2–3% target range. Markets have now priced in a nearly 95% probability that the RBA will ease rates and are anticipating two more reductions by early next year. On the economic front, the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads index recorded its sharpest monthly drop since February in July 2025, marking the fourth decline so far this year and signaling a gradual cooling in labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI surged to its highest level since April 2022, supported by stronger performance in the services sector and a return to growth in manufacturing activity.

澳新银行澳大利亚招聘广告在2025年7月环比下降1.0%，扭转了上个月下调后的1.6%的增长，这是今年迄今为止的第四次下降。这也是自2月以来最大的月度跌幅，表明劳动力市场状况逐渐缓解。教育和零售业拖累了整体数据，部分抵消了上月的涨幅。澳新银行经济学家Aaron Luk表示：“尽管如此，我们的招聘广告系列中的高水平表明劳动力市场不太可能大幅放松。”。“该系列仍处于114-117的狭窄范围内，自2024年中期以来基本呈横向走势。”每年，招聘广告仅增长0.1%，但仍比疫情前水平高出14.4%。

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined by 1.0% month-on-month in July 2025, reversing a downwardly revised 1.6% gain in the previous month and marking the fourth time of decrease so far this year. It was also the sharpest monthly drop since February, pointing to a gradual easing in labour market conditions. Education and retail sectors weighed on the headline figure, partially offsetting gains from the previous month. “Still, elevated levels in our job ads series suggest a substantial loosening of the labour market is unlikely,” said ANZ economist Aaron Luk. “The series remains in a narrow 114–117 range and has largely tracked sideways since mid-2024.” On a yearly basis, job ads rose just 0.1%, but remained 14.4% above pre-pandemic levels.