欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周四早盘美元涨跌互现。美元兑欧元汇率有所回落，但随着日本央行召开会议，美元兑日元汇率也有所上涨。美元本身似乎正在企稳，因为我们最终都同意美元超卖。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Mixed in Early Thursday Trading.The US dollar gave back some of the strength against the euro, but also gained against the yen, as the Bank of Japan had a meeting. The dollar itself seems to be stabilizing, as we my have finally all agreed that the greenback was oversold.

澳大利亚储备银行的商品价格指数在2025年4月同比下降6.1%，低于上个月上调后的7.2%的跌幅。这标志着大宗商品价格连续第26个月下跌，但跌幅为2024年8月以来的最低水平，主要原因是铁矿石和焦煤价格下跌。以澳元计算，该指数在2025年4月下跌了0.7%，较前一个月向上修正的3.5%的跌幅有所缓解。在2025年3月下跌3.6%之后，大宗商品价格每月下跌1.2%，非农村和贱金属分项指数均有所下降。然而，农村分项指数有所上升。以澳元计算，该指数在2025年4月上涨了0.4%。

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Index of Commodity Prices declined by 6.1% year-on-year in April 2025, slowing from an upwardly revised 7.2% drop in the previous month. This marked the 26th consecutive month of falling commodity prices, but at the softest pace since August 2024, mainly due to lower prices for iron ore and coking coal. In Australian dollar terms, the index decreased by 0.7% in April 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 3.5% drop in the prior month. On a monthly basis, commodity prices went down by 1.2%, following a 3.6% decline in March 2025, with both the non-rural and base metals subindices decreasing. However, the rural sub-index increased. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose by 0.4% in April 2025.

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数上涨0.24%，收于8146点，连续第六个交易日上涨，全球贸易情绪改善和乐观的国内数据提振了投资者信心。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在建议与印度、日本和韩国达成潜在贸易协定后提振了市场情绪，同时对与中国达成协议表示乐观。在国内方面，澳大利亚3月份的贸易顺差为69亿澳元，远高于2月份向下修正的28.5亿澳元，超出了31.3亿澳元的预期。此外，4月份制造业活动进一步改善，新订单以近两年半来的最快速度增长。表现最好的是联邦银行（+0.4%）、伍尔沃斯集团（+1.2%）、澳大利亚电信集团（+0.7%）、威斯法农（+0.3%）和Transurban集团（+1.1%）。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.24% to close at 8,146 on Thursday, marking its sixth consecutive session of gains, as improving global trade sentiment and upbeat domestic data boosted investor confidence. US President Donald Trump lifted market mood after suggesting potential trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, while expressing optimism about a deal with China. On the domestic front, Australia posted a trade surplus of A$6.9 billion in March, up sharply from a downwardly revised A$2.85 billion in February and beating expectations of A$3.13 billion. Additionally, manufacturing activity showed further improvement in April, with new orders rising at their fastest pace in nearly two and a half years. Among the top performers were Commonwealth Bank (+0.4%), Woolworths Group (+1.2%), Telstra Group (+0.7%), Wesfarmers (+0.3%), and Transurban Group (+1.1%).

澳大利亚储备银行商品指数特别提款权（年环比）：-6.1%（4月）对-6.5%。澳大利亚储备银行商品指数特别提款权（年环比）：-6.1%（4月）对-6.5%

Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY): -6.1% (April) vs -6.5%.Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY): -6.1% (April) vs -6.5%