欧元/美元，美元/日元和澳元/美元预测-美元在错过NFP后受到重创。至少可以说，在非农工资公告疲软之后，美元受到了沉重打击。因此，市场正在观察美元是否能够自救，但永远不要忘记，如果情况变得足够糟糕，对美国有利

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Gets Hammered After NFP Miss.The US dollar has been hit hard after the Non-Farm Payroll announcement was anemic to say the least. Because of this, the markets are looking to see whether or not the US dollar can save itself, however – never forget that if things get bad enough, its good for the

周五，澳元兑美元汇率升至0.65美元，结束了连续六天的下跌，因为澳大利亚避免了美国最新的关税上调，大多数进口商品仍受10%的税率限制，而美国糟糕的就业数据削弱了美元。特朗普总统发布了一项行政命令，修改了“互惠”基准关税，而未列入名单的国家将面临10%的自动关税，转运货物将额外征收40%的关税，该命令将在命令发布七天后生效。然而，澳大利亚避免了更高的关税，尽管早些时候威胁要上调至15-20%，但其税率仍保持在10%。白宫引用了贸易和安全谈判的进展，指出澳大利亚是接近与美国达成协议的国家之一。与此同时，与大宗商品挂钩的澳元仍面临铜价暴跌的压力，在美国澄清新关税不包括原铜形式后，铜价暴跌了18%以上。鸽派的澳大利亚储备银行前景也拖累了货币。

The Australian dollar rose to $0.65 per on Friday, halting a six-day losing streak as Australia avoided the latest US tariff hikes, with most imports remaining subject to the 10% rate, while poor US jobs numbers weakened the greenback. President Trump issued an executive order revising “reciprocal” baseline tariffs while countries not listed will face an automatic 10% duty and transshipped goods an additional 40%, taking effect seven days after the order. However, Australia avoided steeper tariffs, with its rate held at 10% despite earlier threats of a hike to 15–20%. The White House cited progress in trade and security talks, noting Australia is among countries nearing deals with the US. Meanwhile, the commodity-linked Aussie remained under pressure from a sharp plunge in copper prices, which sank over 18% after the US clarified raw copper forms were excluded from the new tariffs. A dovish RBA outlook also weighed on the currency.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五下跌0.9%，收于8662点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，本周下跌0.1%，为第二周下跌。在美国总统特朗普宣布对十几个贸易伙伴征收10%至41%的新关税后，风险偏好减弱，引发了广泛的抛售。澳大利亚免除了更高的关税，贸易部长唐·法雷尔证实，美国对澳大利亚的出口保持了10%的基准，这是所有国家中最低的，并指出澳大利亚对美国的持续贸易顺差是谈判的关键因素。然而，澳大利亚也未能幸免于更广泛的避险情绪推动澳交所走低。跌幅最大的是医疗保健类股，生物科技巨头CSL领跌（-2.6%），而金融类股下跌1.1%，四大银行下跌超过1%。科技股也下跌2.3%，反映了华尔街在重新审查收益和经济数据时的下跌。在数据方面，第二季度生产者价格指数上涨0.7%，低于预期，加强了8月份的降息押注。

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.9% to end at 8,662 on Friday, extending the prior session’s losses and falling 0.1% for the week—its second weekly decline. A broad-based sell-off took hold as risk appetite weakened after US President Trump unveiled new tariffs of 10% to 41% on a dozen of trading partners. Australia was spared steeper duties, with Trade Minister Don Farrell confirming the US kept its 10% baseline on Australian exports—the lowest among all nations—citing Australia’s consistent trade surplus with the US as a key factor in negotiations. However, Australia was not immune to the broader risk-off sentiment driving the ASX lower. Among top decliners were healthcare stocks, led by biotech giant CSL (-2.6%), while financials dropped 1.1%, with the Big Four banks down over 1%. Tech stocks also fell 2.3%, mirroring Wall Street losses amid renewed scrutiny of earnings and economic data. On the data front, producer prices rose 0.7% in Q2, below forecasts, reinforcing August rate cut bets.

澳大利亚储备银行的商品价格指数在2025年7月同比下降了9%，较前一个月向上修正的10.1%有所缓解。这标志着大宗商品价格连续第29个月下跌，但这是自4月以来最温和的下跌，因为铁矿石、动力煤和炼焦煤的价格下跌。以澳元计算，该指数7月份下跌3.9%，较上月向上修正的4.9%有所缓和。按月计算，7月份大宗商品价格上涨1.3%，从6月份0.8%的跌幅反弹，农村、非农村和贱金属分项指数均在当月上涨。

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Index of Commodity Prices declined by 9% year-on-year in July 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 10.1% drop in the previous month. This marked the 29th consecutive month of falling commodity prices but represented the softest decline since April, amid lower prices for iron ore, thermal coal, and coking coal. In Australian dollar terms, the index fell by 3.9% in July, moderating from an upwardly revised 4.9% drop in the prior month. On a monthly basis, commodity prices rose by 1.3% in July, rebounding from a 0.8% decline in June, with rural, non-rural, and base metals sub-indices all increasing during the month.