标准普尔全球澳大利亚综合采购经理人指数从6月的51.6升至7月的53.8，标志着自2022年4月以来私营部门活动的最强劲扩张。这是连续第十个月增长，主要是由于服务业活动加速增长和制造业产出恢复增长。尽管出口业务持续下滑，但新订单也有所增加。公司通过加快招聘速度来应对不断增加的工作量，有助于减少积压。成本通胀加速，需求强劲导致平均销售价格近两年来增长最快。尽管面临这些压力，但整体商业情绪仍然乐观，尽管信心跌至八个月低点。

The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI rose to 53.8 in July from 51.6 in June, marking the strongest expansion in private sector activity since April 2022. This was the tenth consecutive monthly increase, driven by a faster rise in services activity and a return to growth in manufacturing output. New orders also picked up, although export business continued to decline. Firms responded to rising workloads by hiring at a quicker pace, helping to reduce backlogs. Cost inflation accelerated, and stronger demand led to the fastest increase in average selling prices in nearly two years. Despite these pressures, overall business sentiment remained positive, though confidence slipped to an eight-month low.

标准普尔全球闪电澳大利亚服务业PMI商业活动指数从6月的51.8升至7月的54.1，为2024年3月以来的最高水平，标志着服务业的扩张更加强劲。新业务的急剧增长推动了扩张，主要是在国内市场，而出口需求在经历了四个月的收缩后趋于稳定。房地产和商业服务领涨，公司增加了管理工作量的招聘，连续第三个月减少了积压。在材料、燃料和劳动力成本上涨的推动下，投入成本通胀加剧，促使企业以近两年来最快的速度提价。虽然整体情绪保持积极，但由于成本担忧和经济不确定性，商业信心跌至九个月低点。然而，由于扩张计划和潜在的降息，一些公司仍然持乐观态度。

The S&P Global Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 54.1 in July from 51.8 in June, marking the highest level since March 2024 and signaling a stronger expansion in the services sector. The expansion was fueled by a sharp rise in new business, mainly in the domestic market, while export demand stabilized after four months of contraction. Real estate and business services led the gains, and firms increased hiring to manage workloads, reducing backlogs for a third straight month. Input cost inflation intensified, driven by higher material, fuel, and labor costs, prompting firms to raise prices at the fastest pace in nearly two years. While overall sentiment remained positive, business confidence slipped to a nine-month low amid cost concerns and economic uncertainty. Some firms, however, remained optimistic due to expansion plans and potential interest rate cuts.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.25%左右，在短暂触及四周低点后反弹，因为通货膨胀的急剧上升促使人们重新评估货币政策前景。7月份，TD-MI通胀指标飙升0.9%，为2023年12月以来的最高月度涨幅，加剧了澳大利亚储备银行对供应链和消费者需求的持续担忧。澳大利亚储备银行仍预计核心通胀将逐步缓解，但到2025年底仍将保持在2-3%目标范围的上半部分，而随着家庭能源补贴的逐步取消，整体通胀预计将在年底接近该范围的顶部，并在2026年保持高位。州长米歇尔·布洛克最近还警告了外部风险，包括脆弱的全球前景，这可能会加剧进口通胀，扰乱澳大利亚依赖贸易的经济。为了缓解贸易担忧，美国维持了对澳大利亚商品10%的基准关税不变。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.25%, rebounding after briefly touching a four-week low, as a sharp rise in inflation prompted a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge surged 0.9% in July, the highest monthly increase since December 2023, reinforcing the RBA’s lingering concerns about supply chains and consumer demand. The RBA still expects core inflation to ease gradually but remain in the upper half of its 2–3% target range through late 2025, while headline inflation is forecast to approach the top of the range by year-end and stay elevated into 2026 as household energy subsidies are phased out. Governor Michele Bullock also recently warned of external risks, including a fragile global outlook, which could fuel imported inflation and disrupt Australia’s trade-dependent economy. Helping ease trade concerns, the US left the 10% baseline tariff on Australian goods unchanged.

周一，澳元走强至0.647美元左右，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，因为澳大利亚免除了最新一轮美国关税上调后，市场情绪仍然乐观。上周，特朗普总统宣布了10%的全球基准关税，并对没有贸易协定的国家征收高达41%的互惠关税。尽管早些时候有警告称可能会增加到15-20%，但澳大利亚避免了更严厉的处罚，保留了10%的基本税率。白宫将这种宽大处理归因于正在进行的贸易和安全谈判的进展，并指出澳大利亚是接近与美国达成全面协议的国家之一。在国内，墨尔本研究所的澳大利亚月度通胀指标在2025年7月攀升了0.9%，这是自2023年12月以来的最大月度增幅，高于上个月的0.1%。投资者现在将注意力转向即将公布的PMI数据，以获得更清晰的经济前景信号。

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.647 on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, as market sentiment remained upbeat following Australia’s exemption from the latest round of US tariff hikes. Last week, President Trump announced a 10% baseline global tariff and introduced reciprocal duties of up to 41% on countries without trade agreements. Despite earlier warnings of a potential increase to 15–20%, Australia avoided harsher penalties, retaining the base 10% rate. The White House attributed this leniency to progress in ongoing trade and security negotiations, noting that Australia is among a group of countries nearing comprehensive agreements with the US. Domestically, Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge by the Melbourne Institute climbed 0.9% in July 2025—the largest monthly increase since December 2023—up from a 0.1% rise in the previous month. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming PMI figures for clearer signals on the economy’s outlook.