周四，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.33%的近三周高点，因为投资者在高于预期的月度通胀数据后重新评估了储备银行的政策前景。市场已经看到下周降息的可能性很小，但现在也将11月降息的可能性从价格数据公布前的70%降至40%。8月CPI报告中的细节被视为第三季度通胀上行风险的信号，尽管澳大利亚储备银行淡化了月度数据的重要性，称该系列数据仍然太不稳定，无法依赖。最近几周更广泛的数据流也略有强劲，强化了央行的谨慎立场。此外，州长米歇尔·布洛克周一表示，经济在增长和通胀方面都处于“良好状态”，这表明短期内没有降息的紧迫性。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at a near three-week high of 4.33% on Thursday, as investors reassessed the Reserve Bank's policy outlook following a hotter-than-expected monthly inflation reading. Markets had already seen little chance of a rate cut next week, but have now also trimmed the chance of a November cut to 40% from 70% before the price data. Details in the August CPI report were viewed as signaling upside risks to third-quarter inflation, even though the RBA downplayed the importance of the monthly data, saying the series remained too volatile to rely on. The broader data flow in recent weeks has also been on the slightly strong side, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance. Adding to this, Governor Michele Bullock said on Monday that the economy was in “a good place” with both growth and inflation, suggesting there was no urgency to cut rates in the near term.

周四，澳元小幅上涨至0.659美元左右，弥补了前一交易日的一些损失，因为对国内政策宽松的押注减少超过了美元的强势。最近的数据显示，澳大利亚8月份月度CPI上涨3.0%，为一年来最快增速，略高于2.9%的预测，投资者下调了对澳大利亚储备银行近期政策宽松的预期。市场目前认为，在下周的澳大利亚储备银行会议上降息25个基点的可能性仅为6.5%，在11月的后续会议上降息的可能性为38.2%。分析人士指出，更热的印刷品强化了央行依赖数据的立场，使降息的时间不确定。与此同时，在美联储主席鲍威尔对进一步宽松政策采取谨慎态度后，澳元受到美元走强的压力，这表明需要在通胀风险与就业市场疲软之间取得平衡。现在注意力转向周五的个人消费支出数据，这是衡量美联储下一步行动的关键指标。

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.659 on Thursday, recouping some losses in the previous session, as reduced bets on domestic policy easing outweighed strength in the US dollar. Investors scaled back expectations for near-term policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia after recent data showed Australia’s monthly CPI rose 3.0% in August, the fastest pace in a year and slightly above forecasts of 2.9%. Markets now price only a 6.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at next week’s RBA meeting and 38.2% probability of a cut at its subsequent meeting in November. Analysts noted the hotter print reinforced the central bank’s data-dependent stance, keeping the timing of rate cuts uncertain. Meanwhile, the Aussie came under pressure from a stronger greenback after Fed Chair Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing, indicating the need to balance inflation risks with a weakening job market. Attention now turns to Friday’s PCE data, a key gauge on the Fed’s next steps.

周四早盘，标准普尔/澳交所200指数在8760点附近几乎没有变化，在前一交易日下跌0.9%后暂停，因为矿商的强势抵消了科技股的损失。在通胀报告高于预期，削弱了货币政策宽松的希望之后，风险情绪也保持沉默。此外，在美联储主席鲍威尔警告称，在应对持续的通货膨胀和劳动力市场脆弱性方面“没有无风险的道路”，而他关于股票估值“相当高”的言论增加了全球风险资产的压力后，华尔街也退缩了。在悉尼，自由港麦克莫兰公司宣布其位于印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格的矿场发生不可抗力事件，将运营推迟到2026年年中，铜价攀升，重量级矿商上涨。全球矿业巨头力拓（1.2%）、必和必拓（3.5%）和南方铜业（8.4%）领涨该行业。另一方面，科技股追随美国同行下跌0.9%，因对人工智能行业的怀疑情绪日益高涨，该行业持续抛售。

The S&P/ASX 200 was little changed around 8,760 on Thursday morning trade, pausing after a 0.9% drop in the previous session, as strength from miners offset losses in technology stocks. Risk sentiment also stayed muted following a hotter-than-expected inflation report that tempered hopes for monetary policy easing. Furthermore, Wall Street also retreated after Fed Chair Powell warned of 'no risk-free path' in tackling persistent inflation and labor market fragility, while his remarks that equity valuations are 'fairly high' added pressure on global risk assets. Back in Sydney, heavyweight miners advanced as copper prices climbed after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, delaying operations until mid-2026. Global mining giants Rio Tinto (1.2%), BHP (3.5%), and Southern Copper (8.4%) led the sector. On the flip side, tech shares tracked their US peers lower, down 0.9%, amid continued selling in the sector on mounting skepticism over the AI industry.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周三早些时候美元走强。周三凌晨，美元走强，因为我们仍在质疑全球风险偏好，当然还有美联储是否会足够温和，让市场感到高兴。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Strengthens Early on Wednesday.The US dollar strengthened in the early hours of Wednesday, as we are still asking questions about risk appetite globally, and of course whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to be dovish enough to make the markets happy.