澳大利亚3月份零售额环比增长0.3%，但第一季度销量持平。根据ABS的数据，食品相关支出，特别是超市和杂货店的支出，是这一增长的主要原因，食品和杂项零售业均增长了0.7%。服装相关销售额也小幅上升，但家居用品零售持平。

Australian retail sales grow 0.3% mom in March, but volumes flat in Q1.According to the ABS, food-related spending, particularly in supermarkets and grocery stores, was the main contributor to the uptick, with food and miscellaneous retailing both rising 0.7%. Clothing-related sales also edged higher, but household goods retailing was flat.

随着投资者消化了一批新的经济数据，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.23%左右。3月份零售额仅增长0.3%，低于2月份修正后的0.8%，也低于0.4%的增长预期。再加上核心通胀率从3.3%降至2.9%，自2021年底以来首次回到澳大利亚储备银行的2-3%目标区间，这增强了人们对近期降息的预期。市场普遍预计本月晚些时候将降息25个基点。然而，第一季度生产者价格指数上涨0.9%，略高于0.8%的预测，而整体消费者通胀率为2.4%，超过2.3%的预测。强于预期的通胀数据促使投资者下调了今年多次降息的预测。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held steady around 4.23% as investors digested a fresh batch of economic data. Retail sales rose just 0.3% in March, down from a revised 0.8% gain in February and below expectations of a 0.4% increase. This, combined with easing core inflation—which fell to 2.9% from 3.3%, returning to the RBA’s 2–3% target band for the first time since late 2021—reinforced expectations of a near-term rate cut. Markets widely anticipate a quarter-point cut in later this month. However, producer prices rose 0.9% in Q1, slightly above the 0.8% forecast, while headline consumer inflation came in at 2.4%, exceeding the 2.3% estimate. The stronger-than-expected inflation print prompted investors to scale back forecasts for multiple rate cuts this year.

周五，澳元攀升至0.64美元以上，从上一交易日的下跌中反弹，因为对美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪日益高涨，提振了全球情绪。中国宣布，在美国官员多次尝试进行外联活动后，正在评估贸易谈判的前景。本周早些时候，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普还建议与印度、日本和韩国达成潜在的贸易协议，同时对与中国达成协议表示乐观。在国内方面，数据显示，3月份澳大利亚零售额增长0.3%，略低于预期的0.4%。再加上核心通胀疲软，最新数据提振了市场对澳大利亚储备银行近期降息的预期。人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在5月份将现金利率下调25个基点至3.85%，市场预计到年底将进一步降至2.85%。

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.64 on Friday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as growing optimism over US-China trade negotiations lifted global sentiment. China announced it is evaluating the prospect of trade talks following multiple outreach attempts by US officials. Earlier in the week, US President Donald Trump also suggested potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, while expressing optimism about an agreement with China. On the domestic front, data showed Australian retail sales rose 0.3% in March, slightly below expectations of 0.4%. Combined with softening core inflation, the latest figures bolstered market expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA is widely anticipated to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May, with markets pricing in a further decline to 2.85% by year-end.

尽管零售销售月环比低于预期，澳元仍保持坚挺。周五，澳元（AUD）兑美元（USD）小幅反弹，收复了前一交易日的部分跌幅。然而，澳元/美元对仍然脆弱，因为金属价格下跌打压了市场情绪。

Australian Dollar holds ground despite a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales MoM.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is rebounding modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing some of the previous session's losses. However, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable as falling metal prices weigh on sentiment.