关税压力提振美元，澳大利亚储备银行降息和指引备受关注。随着市场进入美国交易时段，美元全面跑赢大盘，贸易战风险继续主导市场关注。随着7月9日关税停战最后期限的临近，特朗普政府转向了对抗性立场，提出了“要么接受，要么放弃”的关税协议。

Tariff Pressures Lifts Dollar, RBA Cut and Guidance in Spotlight.Dollar is outperforming across the board as markets enter into US session, which trade war risks continue to dominate market attention. With the July 9 tariff truce deadline fast approaching, The Trump administration shifted to a confrontational stance, offering “take-it-or-leave-it” tariff deals.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元在上市前反弹。美元在当天早些时候有所走强，因为我们可能已经有一段时间有点超卖了。在这一点上，市场可能会看到很多嘈杂的交易，因为我们试图扭转局面，至少对

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Fights Back in Premarket.The US dollar has strengthened a touch in the early part of the day, as we might have gotten a bit oversold for a while. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of noisy trading, as we try to turn things around, at least for the

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周一下跌0.2%，收于8589点，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，受到黄金股下跌的压力。市场也保持谨慎，因为预计美国本周将开始通知各国提高关税，税率将于8月1日生效，大多数贸易协议或信函预计将于7月9日生效。特朗普还警告说，任何与金砖国家“反美政策”保持一致的国家都将面临额外10%的关税，无一例外。在国内，市场几乎完全消化了澳大利亚储备银行周二降息25个基点的影响，这是今年第三次降息，随着通货膨胀和经济增长的放缓，现金利率降至3.6%。然而，6月份更强劲的招聘广告和稳定的失业率表明劳动力市场强劲，挑战了鸽派的前景。在企业方面，由于金价下跌，金矿商下跌超过2%。重量级矿商必和必拓和力拓也分别下跌0.3%和0.2%。相反，医疗保健类股飙升1.9%，生物科技巨头CSL领涨（2.2%）。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to close at 8,589 on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, pressured by declines in gold stocks. Market caution also persisted as the US is expected to begin notifying countries of higher tariffs this week, with rates set to take effect on August 1 and most trade deals or letters anticipated by July 9. Trump also warned that any country aligning with BRICS' "anti-American policies" would face an additional 10% tariff, with no exceptions. At home, markets have nearly fully priced in a 25bps cut by the RBA on Tuesday—its third this year—bringing the cash rate to 3.6% as inflation and growth eases. However, stronger June job ads and a steady jobless rate point to labor market strength, challenging the dovish outlook. On the corporate side, gold miners dropped over 2% due to lower bullion prices. Heavyweight miners BHP and Rio Tinto also fell 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Conversely, healthcare stocks surged 1.9%, led by biotech giant CSL (2.2%).

特朗普的金砖国家威胁令澳元和新西兰元感到不安。澳元和新西兰元本周初大幅下跌，与日元一起领跌。此举发生在两国央行会议之前，普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将降息25个基点至3.60%，新西兰储备银行可能会保持在3.25%。

Trump's BRICS Threat Rattles Aussie and Kiwi.Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell sharply to start the week, leading losses alongside Yen. The moves come just ahead of central bank meetings in both countries, with RBA widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.60% and RBNZ likely to hold at 3.25%.