澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.25%左右，投资者等待该国即将发布的就业市场报告。近几个月来，劳动力市场表现出了令人惊讶的弹性，另一个强劲的迹象可能会挑战市场对储备银行7月份降息的预期，目前利率为75%。然而，在中东持续紧张的情况下，债券收益率仍面临压力。尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁德黑兰无条件投降，但以色列和伊朗之间的敌对行动仍在持续，已进入对彼此领土发动袭击的第六天。与此同时，在美国，投资者正在为美联储当天晚些时候的政策决定做准备。虽然人们普遍预计美联储将保持利率不变，但重点将放在今年晚些时候关于潜在降息的时间和程度的任何前瞻性指导上。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 4.25% as investors awaited the country’s upcoming job market report. The labour market has shown surprising resilience in recent months, and another strong print could challenge market expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank in July, which is currently priced at 75%. However, bond yields remain under pressure amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have persisted, entering its sixth day of attacks on each other’s territories despite a call from US President Donald Trump for Tehran's unconditional surrender. Meanwhile, in the US, investors are gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. While the Fed is widely anticipated to keep rates unchanged, focus will be on any forward guidance regarding the timing and extent of potential rate cuts later this year.

周三，澳元走强至0.649美元左右，弥补了前一交易日的一些损失，因为地缘政治紧张局势加剧导致的油价上涨支撑了对大宗商品挂钩货币的需求。随着以色列-伊朗冲突进入第六天，市场焦虑加剧，特朗普总统要求伊朗无条件投降，并暗示美国可能进行干预。作为回应，油价继续攀升，为澳元提供了支撑，因为澳元与大宗商品市场具有很强的相关性。然而，由于以色列和伊朗继续相互攻击，澳元可能会因避险情绪而难以维持其汇率。与此同时，投资者现在正在等待美联储的政策决定，预计利率将保持不变，但在最近美国数据疲软的情况下，注意力将转向未来降息的任何信号。在国内，注意力转向周四的劳动力市场数据，这可能会为经济提供新的动力，并影响澳大利亚储备银行的政策前景。

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.649 on Wednesday, recouping some losses from the previous session, as higher oil prices, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, supported demand for the commodity-linked currency. Market anxiety mounted as the Israel–Iran conflict entered its sixth day, with President Trump demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender and hinting at possible US intervention. In response, oil prices continued to climb, providing support for the AUD given its strong correlation with commodity markets. However, the Aussie may struggle to maintain its ground due to a risk-off mood as Israel and Iran continue to attack each other. Meanwhile, investors now await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with rates expected to stay on hold but focus shifting to any signals of future cuts amid recent weak US data. Domestically, attention turns to Thursday’s labor market data, which could provide fresh momentum to the economy and influence the RBA’s policy outlook.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三下跌0.2%，至8520点左右，这是连续第二个交易日下跌，地缘政治风险上升，国内主要劳动力数据公布前持谨慎态度。伊朗-以色列冲突已进入第六天，据报道，美国总统特朗普考虑对伊朗领导人发动袭击，并要求“无条件投降”，这引发了人们对更广泛的地区升级的担忧。在国内，交易员等待周四公布的5月劳动力数据，这可能会对澳大利亚储备银行的政策前景产生重大影响——疲软的数据可能会助长降息的希望，而强劲的就业增长可能会推迟宽松措施。在企业方面，权重矿商领跌，该子指数下跌1.5%，至一个月低点，因中东紧张局势导致铜价下跌。矿业巨头必和必拓集团下跌1.2%，铁矿石生产商力拓下跌0.4%。黄金股也因获利回吐而下跌0.8%。相比之下，能源股在油价飙升的支撑下上涨，伍德赛德和桑托斯各上涨0.8%。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to around 8,520 on Wednesday, marking its second straight session of losses amid rising geopolitical risks and caution ahead of key domestic labor data. The Iran-Israel conflict entered its sixth day, with US President Trump reportedly considering a strike on Iran’s leader and demanding “unconditional surrender,” raising fears of a wider regional escalation. Domestically, traders await the May labor data due Thursday, which could significantly impact the RBA policy outlook—a soft print may fuel hopes for a rate cut, while strong employment gains could delay easing measures. On the corporate side, heavyweight miners led losses, with the sub-index down 1.5% to a one-month low as copper prices slipped on Middle East tensions. Mining giant BHP Group dropped 1.2%, while iron ore producer Rio Tinto slid 0.4%. Gold stocks also fell 0.8% amid profit-taking. In contrast, energy stocks rose, supported by a surge in oil prices, as Woodside and Santos each advanced 0.8%.

西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所澳大利亚领先经济指数在上个月持平后，于2025年5月小幅下跌0.1%。与此同时，六个月的年化增长率从0.19%降至0.08%，这表明外部拖累势头的因素现在越来越多地来自国内。然而，其中一些压力可能是暂时的。总体而言，数据表明澳大利亚的逐步复苏处于脆弱阶段。西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观预测主管Matthew Hassan表示，到2025年底，国内生产总值预计将同比增长1.7%，略低于此前的预测，也低于历史平均水平。他指出，全球经济增长放缓和贸易政策的不确定性与国内转型的坎坷相吻合，因为政府刺激措施减弱，私人需求仍然疲软。展望7月7日至8日的会议，西太平洋银行预计储备银行将保持利率稳定，在更新经济预测后，8月份可能降息25个基点。

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged down 0.1% in May 2025, after a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate fell to 0.08% from 0.19%, suggesting that external drags on momentum are now increasingly domestic. However, some of these pressures may prove temporary. Overall, the data point to a fragile phase in Australia's gradual recovery. Westpac’s head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, Matthew Hassan, said that GDP growth is expected to reach 1.7% year-on-year by end-2025, slightly lower than earlier projections and below historical averages. He noted that weaker global growth and trade policy uncertainty are coinciding with a bumpy domestic transition, as government stimulus wanes and private demand remains subdued. Looking ahead to the July 7–8 meeting, Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to keep rates steady, with a potential 25 bps cut in August following updated economic forecasts.