澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.36%，在上一交易日触及一个半月高点，得益于强于预期的GDP数据。6月季度经济增长0.6%，超过了0.5%的增长预期，并将年增长率提升到近两年来的最快水平，主要受家庭消费的推动。这一意外上涨增强了人们对澳大利亚储备银行将在本月晚些时候维持利率不变的预期。今天公布的其他数据支持了这一观点。澳大利亚7月份的商品贸易顺差从6月份的53.7亿澳元扩大到73.1亿澳元，出口增长3.3%，进口下降1.3%。与此同时，继6月份增长4.6%之后，7月份家庭支出同比增长5.1%，为2023年11月以来的最高增长。周三，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克警告称，如果消费者支出继续快速增长，可能不太可能进一步降息。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.36%, having touched a one-and-a-half-month high in the previous session on the back of stronger-than-expected GDP data. The economy expanded 0.6% in the June quarter, topping forecasts of a 0.5% gain and lifting the annual growth to its fastest pace in nearly two years, driven primarily by household consumption. The upside surprise reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates on hold later this month. Additional data released today supported this view. Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to A$7.31 billion in July from A$5.37 billion in June, as exports rose 3.3% while imports fell 1.3%. At the same time, household spending climbed 5.1% year-on-year in July, the highest growth since November 2023, following a 4.6% rise in June. On Wednesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned that further interest rate cuts may be unlikely if consumer spending continues to rise rapidly.

周四，澳元兑美元汇率几乎没有变化，保持了最近的涨幅，受到强于预期的贸易平衡数据的支撑。澳大利亚7月份的商品贸易顺差扩大至73.1亿澳元，为17个月来最大，远高于50亿澳元的预期。这一改善是由6月份强劲增长后出口增长3.3%至460.2亿澳元的21个月高点推动的，而进口下降1.3%至387.1亿澳元，受非货币黄金需求疲软的影响。澳元还受到最近公布的第二季度GDP增长乐观数据的支撑，这加强了人们对澳大利亚储备银行将在9月底保持利率稳定的押注。随着政策制定者监测到劳动力市场逐渐从充分就业中放松，市场互换定价的可能性接近90%。在其他地方，美元在7月JOLTS职位空缺疲软后挣扎，交易员现在关注每周失业救济申请人数、ADP就业数据和ISM服务业PMI。

The Australian dollar was little changed to around $0.654 on Thursday, holding its recent gains, supported by stronger-than-expected trade balance figures. Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to AUD 7.31 billion in July, the largest in 17 months and well above expectations of AUD 5.0 billion. The improvement was driven by a 3.3% rise in exports to a 21-month high of AUD 46.02 billion, following strong gains in June, while imports fell 1.3% to AUD 38.71 billion, weighed by softer demand for non-monetary gold. The Aussie also drew support from recent data showing upbeat Q2 GDP growth, reinforcing bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates steady in late September. Market swaps priced in a nearly 90% odds of no change as policymakers monitor a labor market gradually easing from full employment. Elsewhere, the US dollar struggles after weaker July JOLTS job openings, with traders now eyeing weekly jobless claims, ADP employment data, and the ISM Services PMI later.

2025年7月，澳大利亚家庭支出环比增长0.5%，高于上月下调的0.3%，标志着连续第三个月增长。杂项商品和服务支出强劲（6月份为1.5%对0.5%），健康（1.8%对-0.1%）、运输（1.5%对-0.7%）和酒店业（1.4%对-0.5%）也出现反弹，带动了增长。相比之下，娱乐支出放缓（0.2%对0.9%），主要类别有所下降，包括食品（-0.1%对1.2%）、酒类（-1.9%对-2.6%）、服装（-1.2%对1.4%）和家具（-1.4%对2.0%）。从地区上看，维多利亚州（0.6%）、昆士兰州（0.9%）、南澳大利亚州（0.9%），西澳大利亚州（1.6%）、塔斯马尼亚州（1.0%）、北领地（2.2%）和澳大利亚首都直辖区（0.1%）的增幅较大，而新南威尔士州则有所下降（-0.3%）。家庭支出年增长率为5.1%，为2023年11月以来的最高水平，高于6月份向下修正的4.6%。

Household spending in Australia rose 0.5% month-over-month in July 2025, quickening from a downwardly revised 0.3% in the previous month and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Growth was led by stronger expenditure on miscellaneous goods and services (1.5% vs 0.5% in June), alongside rebounds in health (1.8% vs -0.1%), transport (1.5% vs -0.7%), and hospitality (1.4% vs -0.5%). In contrast, spending slowed on recreation (0.2% vs 0.9%) and fell across key categories, including food (-0.1% vs 1.2%), alcohol (-1.9% vs -2.6%), clothing (-1.2% vs 1.4%), and furnishings (-1.4% vs 2.0%). Regionally, gains were recorded in Victoria (0.6%), Queensland (0.9%), South Australia (0.9%), Western Australia (1.6%), Tasmania (1.0%), the Northern Territory (2.2%), and the ACT (0.1%), while New South Wales saw a decline (-0.3%). Annually, household spending grew 5.1%, the strongest since November 2023, quickening from June’s downwardly revised 4.6%.

澳大利亚7月商品贸易顺差扩大至73亿澳元。周四的数据显示，随着能源大宗商品、农村商品和黄金出口均攀升，澳大利亚7月商品贸易顺差扩大至2024年初以来的最高水平。

Australia goods trade surplus widens to A$7.3 billion in July.Australia's surplus on goods trade widened to its highest since early 2024 in July, data showed on Thursday, as exports of energy commodities, rural goods and gold all climbed.