澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.18%，从8个月低点反弹，因为投资者消化了最近的数据，并在下周的利率决定之前等待更多数据。墨尔本研究所的月度通胀指标在6月份环比微涨0.1%，扭转了5月份0.4%的跌幅。与此同时，私营部门信贷增长放缓，低于预期，表明信贷需求疲软，经济活动降温。此前，上周5月通胀率降幅超过预期，接近储备银行2-3%目标区间的下限，并加强了7月降息的理由。尽管如此，经济学家指出，澳大利亚储备银行可能会保持谨慎，理由是劳动力市场状况紧张、生产率低下以及需求复苏带来的持续价格压力。投资者现在关注5月零售销售、制造业采购经理人指数和贸易数据，以进一步了解澳大利亚的增长前景和政策路径。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.18%, rebounding from an eight-month low as investors digested recent data and awaited more ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, reversing a 0.4% decline in May. Meanwhile, private sector credit growth slowed and missed expectations, signaling weaker credit demand and signs of cooling economic activity. This followed last week’s sharper-than-expected drop in May inflation, which brought it near the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range and strengthened the case for a rate cut in July. Still, economists noted the RBA is likely to remain cautious, citing tight labor market conditions, sluggish productivity, and lingering price pressures from recovering demand. Investors now look to May retail sales, manufacturing PMI and trade data for further clues on Australia’s growth outlook and policy path.

周一，澳元微涨至0.653美元左右，受美联储鸽派和财政担忧加剧导致美元持续疲软的支撑。投资者正在密切关注即将公布的美国就业数据，这可能会影响7月份降息的预期。投资者对参议院目前正在审议的一项全面的税收和支出法案的焦虑加剧了美元的压力，该法案可能会增加3.3万亿美元的国债。在国内，墨尔本研究所的月度通胀指标显示，6月份略有上升，扭转了上个月的下降趋势，标志着今年第四次上升。然而，私营部门信贷增长放缓，低于市场预期。经济减速主要是由于商业贷款活动减弱。投资者现在正在等待澳大利亚6月份的制造业采购经理人指数，以了解该行业的健康状况和该国的整体经济势头。

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.653 on Monday, supported by continued weakness in the greenback amid a dovish Federal Reserve and growing fiscal concerns. Investors are closely watching upcoming US jobs data, which could shape expectations for a rate cut in July. Adding to pressure on the greenback is the investor anxiety over a sweeping tax and spending bill currently under consideration in the Senate, which could add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. Domestically, the Melbourne Institute’s Monthly Inflation Gauge showed a modest uptick in June, reversing the previous month's decline and marking the fourth increase this year. However, private sector credit growth slowed, falling short of market expectations. The deceleration was largely driven by weaker business lending activity. Investors now await Australia’s June manufacturing PMI for insights into the health of the sector and the country's overall economic momentum.

2025年5月，澳大利亚私营部门信贷环比微跌至0.5%，低于市场预期和前一个月的0.7%。经济放缓的主要原因是商业贷款减速，与4月份的1%相比下降了0.8%。与此同时，个人贷款从上个月的0.3%微升至5月份的0.5%，而住房信贷增长稳定在0.5%。按年度计算，5月份私营部门信贷增长6.9%，为2023年2月以来的最快增速，而上个月为6.7%。

Australia's private sector credit edged lower to 0.5% month-over-month in May 2025, compared to market expectations and prior month's 0.7%. The slowdown was mainly driven by a deceleration in business loans, which ticked down 0.8% compared to 1% in April. Meanwhile, personal loans edged up to 0.5% in May from 0.3% in the previous month, while housing credit growth remained steady at 0.5%. On an annual basis, private sector credit grew by 6.9% in May — the fastest pace since February 2023 — from a 6.7% gain in the previous month.

墨尔本研究所的月度通胀指标在6月份环比微涨0.1%，扭转了前一个月0.4%的跌幅，标志着今年迄今为止的第四次上涨。

The Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, reversing a 0.4% fall in the previous month and marking the fourth time of rise so far this year.