周四，澳元跌至0.648美元左右，扭转了前一交易日的强劲涨势，此前劳动力市场指标的公布加强了澳大利亚储备银行放松货币政策的理由。尽管失业率稳定在4.1%，连续第三个月保持不变，符合市场预测，但就业数据令人失望。总就业人数下降2500人，至1462万人，超出了增加25000人的预期，这是自2月以来的首次月度下降。市场目前预计，澳大利亚储备银行在7月8日的会议上将关键利率从3.85%降至3.6%的可能性为80%，预计今年晚些时候还会再降息两次。从外部来看，在美联储的鹰派立场下，澳元也受到美元走强的压力。虽然美联储保持利率不变，但它保持了谨慎的数据驱动方法。

The Australian dollar fell to around $0.648 on Thursday, reversing strong gains from the previous session, following the release of labor market indicators that strengthened the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to ease monetary policy. Although the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%—unchanged for the third consecutive month and in line with market forecasts—job figures disappointed. Total employment fell by 2,500 to 14.62 million, defying expectations of a 25,000 increase and marking the first monthly drop since February. Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability that the RBA will lower its key interest rate from 3.85% to 3.6% at its July 8 meeting, with two additional cuts anticipated later in the year. Externally, the Aussie dollar is also under pressure from a strengthening greenback amid the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. While the Fed kept interest rates on hold, it maintained a cautious, data-driven approach.

尽管5月就业人数下降，澳大利亚劳动力市场仍显示出弹性-回顾。澳大利亚5月份就业人数略有下降，总就业人数减少2500人，低于22500人的预期增长。然而，在4月份强劲之后，劳动力市场出现了下降，关键指标表明劳动力市场持续强劲。

Australia's labour market shows resilience despite May job dip - recap.Australian employment slipped slightly in May, with total jobs down 2,500, missing expectations for a 22,500 rise. However, the decline followed a strong April, and key indicators point to ongoing labour market strength.

2025年5月，澳大利亚的就业人数下降了2500人，降至1462万人，超出了市场对增加25000人的预期，这是自2月以来的首次下降。这一下降是在4月份向下修正的87600人激增之后出现的。兼职就业人数急剧下降了41200人，至452万人，扭转了4月份略微修正的29000人的增长。相比之下，全职就业人数增加了38700人，达到1010万人的新高，尽管增速从4月份向下修订的58600人放缓。尽管女性就业人口比率小幅上升了0.1个百分点，达到60.9%的历史新高，但整体就业人口比率下降了0.1个基点，至64.2%。按年度计算，5月份的总就业人数增加了329100人，增幅为2.3%，高于疫情前1.7%的10年平均年增长率。

Employment in Australia fell by 2,500 in May 2025 to 14.62 million, defying market expectations for a 25,000 increase and marking the first decline since February. The decline followed a downwardly revised 87,600 surge in April. Part-time employment decreased sharply by 41,200 to 4.52 million, reversing a marginally revised 29,000 increase in April. In contrast, full-time employment rose by 38,700 to a new record high of 10.10 million, although the pace slowed from a downwardly revised 58,600 gain in April. The overall employment-to-population ratio dipped by 0.1 percentage point to 64.2%, even as the female employment-to-population ratio edged up 0.1 percentage point to a record high of 60.9%. On an annual basis, total employment in May expanded by 329,100, or 2.3%, stronger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year average annual growth of 1.7%.

2025年5月，澳大利亚经季节性调整的失业率稳定在4.1%，与前两个月持平，符合市场预期。失业人数下降了2600人，至618300人，寻求全职工作的人数下降了16.1万人，至415.2万人，而寻找兼职工作的人数增加了13.5万人，达到20.3万人。与此同时，就业人数意外下降了2500人，至1462万人，低于4月份向下修正后的87.6万人的增长预测，即增加25000人。兼职就业人数下降了41100人，至452万人，而全职就业人数增加了38700人，创下1010万人的新高。参与率从4月份的三个月高点67.1%降至67.0%，低于67.1%的预测。就业不足率从6.0%微升至5.9%。所有工作的月工作时数增加了2500万，达到1.94亿。

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in May 2025, unchanged from the previous two months and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed people declined by 2,600 to 618,300, with those seeking full-time jobs falling 16.1 thousand to 415.2 thousand while those looking for part-time jobs increased by 13.5 thousand to 203 thousand. Meanwhile, employment unexpectedly fell by 2,500 to 14.62 million, missing forecasts of a 25,000 increase, after a downwardly revised 87.6 thousand rise in April. Part-time employment declined by 41,100 to 4.52 million, while full-time employment increased by 38,700 to a fresh record high of 10.10 million. The participation rate edged down to 67.0% from April's three-month high of 67.1% and below forecasts of 67.1%. The underemployment rate inched down to 5.9% from 6.0%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 25 million to 1,994 million.