标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五下跌约0.2%，至26730点以下，在金价下跌、经济停滞和政策预期转变对加拿大股市造成压力的情况下，将部分周涨幅削减至0.8%左右。主要矿业股领跌，Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious、Barrick Gold和Franco-Nevada下跌2%至3.7%，黄金大幅下跌，目前处于四周低点，因为地缘政治紧张局势缓解和美中贸易协定明确，避险需求减弱。与此同时，加拿大经济在4月和5月均收缩了0.1%，加剧了人们对更广泛放缓的担忧，尤其是在制造业和批发业在关税压力下萎缩的情况下。尽管存在这种疲软，但核心通胀的粘性和加拿大央行对降息的谨慎立场推高了长期债券收益率，提高了贴现率，并给股票估值带来了压力。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell around 0.2% to below the 26,730 mark on Friday, trimming some of the weekly gains to around 0.8% amid falling gold prices, economic stagnation, and shifting policy expectations weighing on Canadian equities. Major mining equities led the decline with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada tumbling between 2% and 3.7% amid a sharp decline in gold—now at a four-week low, as safe-haven demand wanes amid easing geopolitical tensions and clarity on the US–China trade accord. Meanwhile, Canada’s economy contracted 0.1% in both April and May, reinforcing concerns over a broader slowdown, especially as manufacturing and wholesale sectors shrank under tariff strain. Despite this weakness, sticky core inflation and the Bank of Canada's cautious stance on rate cuts have pushed long-term bond yields higher, raising discount rates and pressuring equity valuations.

加拿大4月经济表现不佳，预计5月将继续疲软。

Canada's Economy Underdelivers in April, Continued Weakness Expected in May.

加拿大10年期国债收益率攀升至3.36%以上，受供应增加、持续通胀和对加拿大央行的鹰派预期支撑。渥太华2025-26年创纪录的6280亿加元借款计划受到延迟预算和将国防支出提高到GDP 5%的承诺的压缩，导致债券发行激增，给债券价格带来压力。与此同时，尽管整体通胀率保持在1.7%的温和水平，但核心指标（CPI调整和CPI中位数）仍徘徊在加拿大央行1-3%区间的顶部之上，这降低了人们对迅速降息的预期，并保持了长期收益率的上升。此外，在对中东停火持乐观态度之后，最近油价暴跌，削减了出口收入，增加了财政风险溢价。然而，4月和5月连续0.1%的GDP收缩突显了经济停滞，暗示最终的货币宽松政策可能会抑制收益率的进一步上升。

The Canadian 10-year yield climbed above 3.36%, underpinned by increased supply, persistent inflation and hawkish expectations for the BCB. Ottawa’s record C$628 billion borrowing plan for 2025–26—compressed by a delayed budget and a pledge to lift defence spending to 5% of GDP—has swollen issuance, pressuring bond prices. At the same time, while headline inflation sits at a tame 1.7%, core gauges (CPI-trim and CPI-median) linger above the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% band, tempering expectations for swift rate cuts and keeping long-term yields elevated. Additionally, the recent plunge in oil prices—following optimism over a Middle East ceasefire—has trimmed export revenue, adding a fiscal risk premium. Nevertheless, back-to-back 0.1% GDP contractions in April and May underscore economic stagnation, hinting that eventual monetary easing could rein in further yield advances.

加元从6月16日的8个月低点1.354回落后，稳定在1.365美元左右，因为尽管加元从最近的反弹中有所回落，但由于美联储放松政策的希望，美元走软继续支撑大多数货币。在国内，继4月份类似的衰退之后，加拿大经济可能在5月份连续第二个月收缩0.1%，突显出经济易受美国关税和贸易不确定性的影响。与此同时，在中东稳定的停火和充足的美国原油库存的推动下，石油最近暴跌，削弱了加拿大贸易条件的一个关键支撑支柱。尽管如此，加拿大央行的稳健立场，加上持续高于目标的核心通胀和鹰派的前瞻性指引，使加元保持坚挺。

The Canadian dollar stabilized around 1.365 per USD, after retreating from its eight-month low of 1.354 seen June 16th, as a softer greenback amid hopes for Fed easing continue to prop up most currencies even as the Canadian dollar pares a bit from its recent rebound. Domestically, the Canadian economy is likely set for a second consecutive monthly contraction of 0.1% in May, following a similar downturn in April, underscoring the economy’s vulnerability to US tariffs and trade uncertainty. At the same time, oil’s recent plunge, fueled by a stable Middle East ceasefire and ample US crude stocks, has trimmed a key support pillar for Canada’s terms of trade. Nonetheless, the Bank of Canada’s steady-as-she-goes stance, reinforced by persistent core inflation above target and hawkish forward guidance, has kept the Loonie buoyant.