加拿大10年期政府收益率升至3.1%，在加拿大央行将政策利率下调25个基点至2.25%后，从4月份的低点反弹，并表明此举可能标志着宽松政策的终结，而不是开放式宽松周期的开始。这一决定是在宏观经济疲软的背景下做出的，第二季度国内生产总值收缩1.6%，劳动力市场疲软，尽管一次性增加了6万人的工资，使失业率接近7.1%。通货膨胀率仍然很高，足以缓和宽松的希望，总体CPI同比为2.4%，央行的削减措施接近3.1%。市场将降息视为已基本消化，并转向中国银行依赖数据的指导方针，这降低了进一步宽松的可能性，并推高了收益率。与此同时，美国贸易和关税的持续不确定性以及加拿大为支持贸易关系而对亚洲的拓展，使外部风险居高不下，并保持避险基调，进一步支持更高的长期收益率。

The 10-year Canadian government yield rose toward 3.1%, rebounding from April lows after the Bank of Canada cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.25% and signalled that the move likely marks the endpoint of easing rather than the start of an open-ended easing cycle. The decision arrived against a weak macro backdrop with Q2 GDP contracting 1.6% and the labour market softening despite a one-off 60,000 payroll gain that left unemployment near 7.1%. Inflation remains sticky enough to temper easing hopes with headline CPI at 2.4% year on year and the Bank’s Trimmed measure near 3.1%. Markets treated the cut as largely priced in and shifted to the BoC’s data dependent guidance, which reduced odds of further accommodation and pushed yields higher. At the same time persistent US trade and tariff uncertainty and Canadian outreach to Asia to shore up trade ties keep external risks elevated and sustain a risk off tone that further supports higher long yields.