加拿大央行 保持利率不变，推出新的情景分析。正如普遍预期的那样，加拿大央行连续第三次会议保持隔夜利率稳定，同时为未来的降息敞开大门——自3月以来，隔夜利率一直保持在2.75%，此前连续7次降息使其低于去年5%的峰值。

BoC Holds Rates, Unveils New Scenario Analysis.As widely expected, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady for a third consecutive meeting, while leaving the door open to future cuts — the overnight rate has remained at 2.75% since March, after 7 consecutive rate cuts lowered it from last year's peak of 5%.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率跌至3.47%以下，较7月15日的一年高点3.611%进一步回落，原因是投资者消化了中国银行的最新决定，并在美国贸易协议决议的持续不确定性中寻求避险资产。加拿大央行决定将政策利率维持在2.75%，这是在七次降息总计2.25个百分点后的第三次暂停，突显了政策制定者在持续的关税威胁、出口商在第一季度提前发货导致第二季度GDP收缩以及CPI通胀将徘徊在2%目标附近的预期面前的谨慎态度。尽管加拿大劳动力市场保持强劲，下半年增长预测保持建设性，但尽管美国国债收益率稳定在较高水平，但缺乏新的中国银行指导方针和不平衡的全球贸易动态提振了对高质量政府债务的需求。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond slid below 3.47%, easing further from its one-year high of 3.611% seen July 15th as investors digested the latest BoC decision and sought safe-haven assets amid ongoing uncertainty over a US trade-deal resolution. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75%, its third pause after seven cuts totaling 2.25 percentage points, highlighted policymakers’ caution in the face of persistent tariff threats, a looming Q2 GDP contraction as exporters front-loaded shipments in Q1, and an expectation that CPI inflation will hover near the 2% target. Although Canada’s labour market remains robust and second-half growth forecasts stay constructive, the absence of fresh BoC guidance and uneven global trade dynamics bolstered demand for high-quality government debt even as US Treasury yields steadied at elevated levels.

周三，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数在27540点附近艰难地保持持平，因为投资者权衡了加拿大经济和加拿大银行货币立场的好坏参半的信号。加拿大央行将政策利率维持在2.75%，这是继2.25%之后的第三次暂停？由于美国持续的关税不确定性、出口商提前发货后第二季度GDP收缩的风险，以及通胀将徘徊在2%目标附近的观点，削减了几个百分点。虽然有弹性的劳动力市场和乐观的增长预测提供了支持，但缺乏新的指导和全球贸易不平衡使市场保持谨慎。行业表现反映了这种矛盾情绪，科技股Celestica（+5.3%）和Constellation Software（+0.7%）领涨，金融股喜忧参半，道明银行（0.5%）和丰业银行（0.7%）上涨，蒙特利尔银行下跌超过1%，能源生产商——从加拿大天然气公司到Cenovus——均下跌超过0.5%。

The S&P/TSX Composite struggled for direction trading flat around the 27,540 mark on Wednesday, as investors weighed mixed signals from Canada’s economy and the Bank of Canada’s monetary stance. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%—its third pause after 2.25?percentage points of cuts, citing persistent US tariff uncertainty, the risk of a Q2 GDP contraction after exporters front-loaded shipments, and the view that inflation will hover near its 2% target. While a resilient labour market and upbeat growth forecasts provided support, the lack of fresh guidance and uneven global trade kept the market cautious. Sector performance reflected this ambivalence with tech names Celestica (+5.3%) and Constellation Software (+0.7%) leading gains, financials were mixed with TD Bank (0.5%) and Scotiabank (0.7%) up while BMO fell over 1%, and energy producers—from Canadian Natural to Cenovus—each slid more than 0.5%.

加元兑美元汇率跌破1.38，为两个月来的最低水平，受到美元走强的压力，而加拿大的货币和经济背景对加元的支撑作用不大。加拿大央行决定将政策利率维持在2.75%，这是在七次降息总计2.25个百分点后的第三次暂停，突显了政策制定者面对持续的关税不确定性、出口商在第一季度提前发货导致第二季度国内生产总值收缩的迫在眉睫，以及中期CPI通胀将徘徊在2%目标附近的预期时的谨慎态度。尽管就业保持强劲，下半年增长预测保持乐观，但缺乏新的指导和全球贸易不平衡的幽灵使货币变得脆弱。加剧这些本土压力的是，美元已飙升至近两个月高点，这得益于第二季度GDP年化增长3%，巩固了美联储的加息押注，再加上美国劳动力数据喜忧参半，仍表明就业市场紧张。

The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.38 per US dollar, its weakest level in two months, pressured by US dollar strength while Canada’s monetary and economic backdrop has done little to buoy the loonie. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75%, the third pause after seven cuts totaling 2.25 percentage points, underscored policymakers’ caution in the face of persistent tariff uncertainties, a looming Q2 GDP contraction as exporters front-loaded shipments in Q1, and the expectation that CPI inflation will hover near the 2% target in the medium term. Despite employment remaining robust and second-half growth projections staying upbeat, the lack of fresh guidance and the specter of uneven global trade left the currency vulnerable. Compounding these home-grown pressures, the US dollar has surged to near two-month highs, on the back of a 3% annualized Q2 GDP beat that cements Fed rate-hold bets, compounded with mixed US labor data that still points to a tight jobs market.