周四，随着投资者消化了最新的采购经理人指数和最近结束的政治局会议的结果，中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至1.73%左右，打破了两个交易日的涨幅。官方数据显示，7月份经济势头减弱，综合采购经理人指数从6月份的50.7降至50.2的三个月低点。制造业活动持续收缩，从49.7降至49.3，而服务业采购经理人指数从50.5降至50.1，为八个月来最低。尽管数据疲软，但周三的政治局会议仍为市场情绪提供了一些支持。这个由24名成员组成的决策机构誓言要促进经济增长，遏制“无序竞争”，以应对日益严峻的经济挑战。然而，领导人没有采取广泛的刺激措施，而是将重点转移到解决关键部门的产能过剩问题上。

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.73% on Thursday, breaking a two-session gain, as investors digested the latest PMI figures and the outcomes of the recently concluded Politburo meeting. Official data pointed to a loss of economic momentum in July, with the composite PMI dropping to a three-month low of 50.2 from June’s 50.7. Manufacturing activity remained in contraction, falling to 49.3 from 49.7, while the services PMI declined to 50.1 — its weakest reading in eight months — from 50.5. Despite the weak data, sentiment found some support from Wednesday’s Politburo meeting. The 24-member policymaking body vowed to bolster economic growth and curb “disorderly competition” in response to mounting economic challenges. However, leaders refrained from introducing broad-based stimulus measures, instead shifting their focus to addressing overcapacity across key sectors.

周四，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.19左右，结束了连续五个交易日的下跌，尽管投资者权衡了令人失望的PMI数据和最新政治局会议的谨慎乐观情绪。中国官方采购经理人指数（PMI）数据显示，7月份的增长势头放缓，综合PMI从6月份的50.7降至50.2，为三个月低点。制造业活动仍处于收缩状态，从49.7降至49.3，而服务业采购经理人指数从50.5降至50.1，为八个月来的最低水平。尽管数据疲软，但周三的政治局会议仍为市场情绪提供了一些支持。这个由24名成员组成的决策机构承诺在日益严峻的经济挑战中支持经济增长，控制“无序竞争”。然而，政策制定者没有宣布大规模刺激计划，而是将重点转向解决经济中的产能过剩问题。本月，人民币在连续两个月上涨后将首次下跌。

The offshore yuan rose to around 7.19 per dollar on Thursday, snapping a five-session losing streak, even as investors weighed disappointing PMI data against cautious optimism from the latest Politburo meeting. China’s official PMI data pointed to slowing momentum in July, with the composite PMI falling to a three-month low of 50.2 from June’s 50.7. Manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory, dropping to 49.3 from 49.7, while the services PMI eased to 50.1 — its weakest level in eight months — from 50.5. Despite the weak data, sentiment found some support from Wednesday’s Politburo meeting. The 24-member decision-making body pledged to support economic growth and rein in “disorderly competition,” amid mounting economic challenges. However, policymakers stopped short of announcing large-scale stimulus, instead shifting their focus toward addressing overcapacity issues in the economy. Over the month, the yuan is set for its first drop after two consecutive months of gains.

周四，上证综指下跌0.8%，至3600点以下，而深证成指下跌0.5%，至11145点，延续了近期的疲软，令人失望的经济数据打压了市场情绪。中国官方制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，7月份收缩幅度高于预期，反映出经济势头疲软和与美国的贸易紧张局势持续存在。服务业的增长也放缓，达到八个月来的最低点。尽管美国和中国官员本周早些时候在斯德哥尔摩结束了最新一轮贸易谈判，但唐纳德·特朗普总统尚未批准再次延长当前的关税休战。投资者现在正关注即将召开的政治局会议，以寻求旨在稳定经济的潜在刺激信号。其中明显落后的是现代安培（-2.3%）、内蒙古伊利（-6.5%）、无锡爱普泰克（-1.9%）、中国北方稀土（-4%）和比亚迪公司（-2.6%）。

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% to below 3,600 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.5% to 11,145 on Thursday, extending recent weakness as disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment. China’s official manufacturing PMI signaled a sharper-than-expected contraction in July, reflecting sluggish economic momentum and persistent trade tensions with the US. Growth in the services sector also slowed, hitting an eight-month low. Although US and Chinese officials wrapped up their latest round of trade talks in Stockholm earlier this week, President Donald Trump has yet to approve another extension of the current tariff truce. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Politburo meeting for potential stimulus signals aimed at stabilizing the economy. Among the notable laggards were Contemporary Amperex (-2.3%), Inner Mongolia Yili (-6.5%), Wuxi Apptec (-1.9%), China Northern Rare Earth (-4%), and BYD Company (-2.6%).

中国国家统计局官方非制造业采购经理人指数从上个月的50.5降至2025年7月的50.1，为2024年11月以来的最低水平，未达到市场共识的50.3。最新数据反映出增长势头减弱的迹象越来越多，美国关税飙升导致贸易不确定性加剧，以及恶劣天气的影响。新订单（45.7比6月的46.6）和国外销售额（48.8比49.8）都以更快的速度收缩，表明国内外需求疲软。就业仍然低迷，与上月相比变化不大（45.6比45.5），而供应商交货时间稳定（51.2）。在成本方面，投入价格自1月以来首次上涨（50.3比49.9），表明成本压力正在显现。然而，销售价格进一步下跌（47.9比48.8），表明利润率压力增加。尽管指标疲软，但商业信心从6月份的9个月低点（55.8比55.6）略有上升，仍处于积极区间。

China’s official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in July 2025 from 50.5 in the previous month, marking the lowest figure since November 2024 and missing market consensus of 50.3. The latest data reflected mounting signs of weakening growth momentum, heightened trade uncertainty amid steep U.S. tariffs, and the impact of adverse weather. Both new orders (45.7 vs 46.6 in June) and foreign sales (48.8 vs 49.8) contracted at a faster pace, signaling soft demand at home and abroad. Employment remained subdued, with little change from the prior month (45.6 vs 45.5), while supplier delivery times were steady (at 51.2). On the cost side, input prices rose for the first time since January (50.3 vs 49.9), indicating emerging cost pressures. However, selling prices declined further (47.9 vs 48.8), pointing to increased margin pressure. Despite the sluggish indicators, business confidence edged up slightly from June’s nine-month low (55.8 vs 55.6), remaining in positive territory.