特朗普贸易战、中国经济放缓和中东危机加剧石油波动。特朗普的关税、中国经济放缓和伊朗-以色列冲突引发了石油市场的剧烈波动，推动WTI原油价格超过75美元。

Trump Trade War, China Slowdown, and Middle East Crisis Fuel Oil Volatility.Trump tariffs, the China slowdown, and the Iran-Israel conflict have triggered strong volatility in the oil market, pushing WTI crude oil above $75.

中国：消费上升，投资下降——渣打银行。在前期政策支持下，5月份零售销售增长加速至17个月高点。美中关税休战后，市场情绪好转，支持了出口和知识产权的稳定增长。

China: Consumption up, investment down – Standard Chartered.Retail sales growth accelerated to a 17-month high in May on front-loaded policy support. Better sentiment after US-China tariff truce supported steady export and IP growth.

周一，中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至1.64%的五周低点，因为在新的流动性支持和持续的宏观经济不确定性下，对更安全资产的需求增加。在上周创纪录的1万亿元人民币操作之后，中国人民银行通过为期六个月的反向回购向银行系统注入了4000亿元人民币，旨在在大规模非传染性疾病到期之前缓解资金压力。此举标志着持续的政策支持，这推高了债券价格。与此同时，好坏参半的经济数据增添了谨慎的基调，零售额以一年多来最快的速度增长，但工业产出出现了六个月来最疲软的增长，突显出中国复苏势头不平衡。地缘政治风险也挥之不去，以色列和伊朗周末再次发动袭击，加剧了避险情绪，并强化了对主权债务的需求。此外，围绕模糊的美中贸易协议框架的不确定性进一步限制了收益率的上升。

China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a five-week low of 1.64% on Monday, as demand for safer assets rose amid fresh liquidity support and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. The People’s Bank of China injected 400 billion yuan into the banking system via six-month reverse repos, following a record 1 trillion yuan operation the previous week, aiming to ease funding pressures ahead of a heavy wave of NCD maturities. The move signaled ongoing policy support, which pushed bond prices higher. Meanwhile, mixed economic data added a cautious tone, with retail sales rising at the fastest pace in over a year, but industrial output posted its weakest growth in six months, underscoring uneven momentum in China’s recovery. Geopolitical risks also lingered, with Israel and Iran exchanging fresh attacks over the weekend, boosting risk aversion and reinforcing demand for sovereign debt. Also, uncertainty around a vague US–China trade deal framework further limited upside in yields.

周一，离岸人民币兑美元汇率稳定在7.18左右，因为市场消化了一批好坏参半的中国经济数据，这些数据几乎没有为人民币提供明确的方向。尽管5月份零售额以一年多来最快的速度增长，但工业生产表现平平，出现了六个月来最疲软的增长，并低于市场预期。这些数字加剧了人们对中国经济复苏势头不平衡的担忧。以色列和伊朗周末再次发动袭击，推动了对美元的避险需求，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，市场对此也持谨慎态度。此外，由于美中框架协议的细节尚未确定，人民币仍受到持续贸易不确定性的压力。与此同时，中国人民银行设定的每日中间利率略高于预期，并通过反向回购注入流动性以缓解资金压力，这表明在不确定性中仍有持续的支持。

The offshore yuan held steady to around 7.18 per dollar on Monday, as markets digested a batch of mixed Chinese economic data that offered little clear direction for the currency. While retail sales rose at the quickest pace in over a year in May, industrial production underwhelmed, posting its weakest growth in six months and missing market projections. These figures reinforced concerns over uneven momentum in China’s economic recovery. Market caution also lingered over rising geopolitical tensions after Israel and Iran exchanged fresh attacks over the weekend, which drove safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Additionally, the yuan remained under pressure from ongoing trade uncertainty, as details on the US-China framework agreement were yet to be determined. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China set the daily midpoint rate slightly stronger than expected and injected liquidity via reverse repos to ease funding strains, signaling ongoing support amid uncertainty.