周二，上证综指上涨0.39%，收于3458点，深证成分股微涨0.11%，收于10476点，内地股市在制造业活动意外反弹后创下数月新高。财新网最新调查显示，在美国关税上调的情况下，北京方面加大了稳定增长的力度，这支持了中国6月份工厂活动意外恢复扩张。这些数据提振了投资者对工业部门韧性的信心。展望未来，市场正将注意力转向即将于7月举行的政治局会议，投资者预计会宣布进一步的政策刺激措施。北京上周五宣布，它已与华盛顿敲定了一项新的贸易协议，这增加了积极的情绪。涨幅较大的股票包括北方工业（+3.7%）、苏州东山（+10%）、安徽长城（+10%”）、天芯半导体（-3.7%）和天水华天（+6.7%）。

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.39% to close at 3,458 while the Shenzhen Component edged up 0.11% to 10,476 on Tuesday, with mainland stocks scaling multi-month highs following a surprise rebound in manufacturing activity. The latest Caixin survey showed that China’s factory activity unexpectedly returned to expansion in June, supported by Beijing’s stepped-up efforts to stabilize growth amid higher US tariffs. The data boosted investor confidence in the resilience of the industrial sector. Looking ahead, markets are turning their focus to the upcoming July Politburo meeting, where investors anticipate potential announcements on further policy stimulus. Adding to the positive sentiment, Beijing announced last Friday that it had finalized a new trade agreement with Washington. Among notable gainers were North Industries (+3.7%), Suzhou Dongshan (+10%), Anhui Greatwall (+10%), TechSemiconductor (+3.7%), and Tianshui Huatian (+6.7%).

截至6月底，中国国家外汇管理局将合格境内机构投资者（QDII）的外汇额度从1678亿美元增加到1709亿美元。这标志着自2024年5月以来，随着当局放松资本外流控制，批准的投资者可以分配给海外资产的金额首次增加。此次调整是在美元走弱和对美国股票等海外资产需求放缓之后进行的，这有助于缓解人民币的压力。根据QDII计划，中国授权机构可以在规定的限额内投资海外证券、债券和商品。过去两年，在国内股市疲软的情况下，对外国资产的兴趣激增，导致ETF定价扭曲，因为需求超过了配额供应。最新的扩张包括证券公司和基金公司21亿美元，银行6.6亿美元，保险公司3亿美元。

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange in China increased the foreign-exchange quota for qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) to USD 170.9 billion at the end of June from USD 167.8 billion. This marks the first increase in the amount approved investors can allocate to overseas assets since May 2024, as authorities move to ease capital outflow controls. The adjustment follows a weakening US dollar and slowing demand for overseas assets like US stocks, which have helped ease pressure on the yuan. Under the QDII scheme, authorized Chinese institutions can invest in overseas securities, bonds, and commodities within specified limits. Interest in foreign assets surged over the past two years amid a sluggish domestic equity market, leading to ETF pricing distortions as demand outstripped quota supply. The latest expansion includes USD 2.1 billion for securities firms and fund houses, USD 660 million for banks, and USD 300 million for insurers.

周二，中国10年期政府债券收益率保持近期涨幅在1.65%左右，这得益于制造业活动意外反弹后市场情绪的改善。财新网最新调查显示，中国6月工厂活动意外恢复增长，从48.3升至50.4，超过了49的预期，这得益于北京在美国关税上调的情况下稳定增长的努力。该数据与周一发布的官方采购经理人指数形成鲜明对比，该指数表明连续第三个月出现收缩，但略有改善，突显出出口驱动型企业在贸易逆风下的韧性。为了增加支持，北京周五宣布与华盛顿达成一项新的贸易协议，根据该协议，中国将审查出口申请，而美国将放宽对中国实体的某些限制。展望未来，市场关注即将到来的关键政治会议，特别是即将召开的7月政治局会议，让市场关注潜在的刺激信号。

China’s 10-year government bond yield held its recent gains to around 1.65% on Tuesday, supported by improved sentiment after a surprise rebound in manufacturing activity. The latest Caixin survey showed that China’s factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth in June, rising to 50.4 from 48.3, and beating forecasts of 49, supported by Beijing’s efforts to stabilize growth amid higher US tariffs. The reading contrasted with the official PMI released Monday, which signaled a third straight month of contraction, though with modest improvement, highlighting resilience among export-driven firms despite trade headwinds. Adding support, Beijing announced a new trade deal with Washington on Friday, under which China will review export applications, while the US will ease certain restrictions on Chinese entities. Looking ahead, markets are focused on upcoming key political meetings, particularly the upcoming July Politburo meeting, keeping markets attentive for potential stimulus signals.

中国财新制造业采购经理人指数升至50.4，但乐观情绪逐渐消退。

China Caixin PMI manufacturing rises to 50.4, but optimism fades.