在上半年下降1.8%之后，中国工业企业的利润在2025年前七个月同比下降1.7%，至4.02万亿元人民币。这一下降突显了商业和消费者信心的减弱，这继续对需求和更广泛的经济造成压力。国有企业利润继续下降（1月至6月为-7.5%对-7.6%），而私营部门的增长变化不大（1.8%对1.7%）。按行业划分，煤炭开采（-55.2%）、石油和天然气（-12.6%）、化工（-8.0%）、纺织（-6.5%）和非金属矿物（-5.6%）的利润下降。与此同时，农业（14.5%）、电机和设备（11.7%）、有色金属（6.9%）、计算机和通信（6.7%）、一般制造业（6.4%）、热能生产（6.3%）、特种设备（3.2%）和汽车（0.9%）均有所增长。仅在7月份，利润同比下降1.5%，较6月份的4.3%有所改善，但这是连续第三个月下降。

Profits at China’s industrial firms fell 1.7% year-on-year to CNY 4.02 trillion in the first seven months of 2025, after a 1.8% decline in the first half of the year. The decline highlighted subdued business and consumer confidence that continues to weigh on demand and the broader economy. Profits at state-owned enterprises extended their decrease (-7.5% vs -7.6% in January–June), while growth in the private sector was little changed (1.8% vs 1.7%). By sector, profits fell in coal mining (-55.2%), oil and gas (-12.6%), chemicals (-8.0%), textiles (-6.5%), and non-metallic minerals (-5.6%). Meanwhile, gains were seen in agriculture (14.5%), electrical machinery and equipment (11.7%), non-ferrous metals (6.9%), computers and communications (6.7%), general manufacturing (6.4%), heat production (6.3%), special equipment (3.2%), and autos (0.9%). In July alone, profits slipped 1.5% from a year earlier, improving from a 4.3% drop in June but marking the third consecutive monthly fall.

中国将举行罕见的DC贸易谈判；特朗普警告对稀土出口征收200%的关税。中国将于本周派遣高级贸易特使李成钢前往华盛顿，这是中国多年来首次在美国首都举行会谈，双方将努力在关税休战期间加强对话。李将与美国官员和商界领袖会面，讨论大豆、芬太尼关税和技术限制，背景是特朗普再次威胁称，如果中国限制稀土出口，将征收200%的关税。

China to hold rare DC trade talks; Trump warns of 200% tariffs over rare earth exports.China will send senior trade envoy Li Chenggang to Washington this week, its first talks in the U.S. capital in years, amid efforts to strengthen dialogue during the tariff truce. Li will meet U.S. officials and business leaders to discuss soybeans, fentanyl tariffs, and tech restrictions, against a backdrop of Trump's fresh threat of 200% tariffs if China curbs rare earth exports.

周二，中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至1.77%以下，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普更尖锐的关税言论引发贸易担忧，市场情绪变得谨慎。特朗普威胁称，如果中国限制稀土磁铁的出口，他将征收200%的关税，并补充说，华盛顿可以利用对飞机零部件的限制来对抗北京在该行业的主导地位。尽管在4月早些时候实施限制措施后，中国对美国的磁铁出口在6月和7月激增，但他还是发表了上述言论。分析人士警告称，这些威胁可能会扰乱将于11月到期的脆弱的贸易休战，而中国高级谈判代表李成钢将于本周前往华盛顿进行旨在缓解紧张局势的会谈。不确定性强化了避险需求，推低了收益率。

China’s 10-year government bond yield slipped below 1.77% on Tuesday, as sentiment turned cautious amid renewed trade concerns following US President Donald Trump’s sharper tariff rhetoric. Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs if China curbs exports of rare-earth magnets, adding that Washington could leverage restrictions on airplane parts to counter Beijing’s dominance in the sector. His remarks come despite Chinese magnet exports to the US surging in June and July after earlier curbs in April. Analysts warned the threats risk unsettling a fragile trade truce due to expire in November, while senior Chinese negotiator Li Chenggang is set to travel to Washington this week for talks aimed at easing tensions. The uncertainty reinforced safe-haven demand, pushing yields lower.

周二，上证综指下跌0.3%，收于3870点左右，而深证成分股上涨0.3%，收于12480点。由于新的贸易担忧打压市场情绪，内地股市表现喜忧参半。据报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁称，如果中国未能向美国出口稀土磁铁，他将对中国征收“200%的关税或其他什么”。尽管最近出现了紧张局势，但中国股市本月大幅上涨，上证指数创下2015年以来的最高水平。分析人士指出，这一势头的部分原因是中国160万亿元的家庭储蓄从房地产转向股票，特别是在半导体和可再生能源等技术驱动的行业。各行业交易喜忧参半，中国北方稀土（-4%）和寒武纪科技（-3.4%）跌幅显著，而苏州TFC（+17.5%）和Takweb Information（+10%）强劲上涨。

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.3% to around 3,870 while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.3% to 12,480 on Tuesday, with mainland shares posting mixed performances as renewed trade concerns weighed on sentiment. US President Donald Trump reportedly threatened to impose “200% tariffs or something” on China if it failed to export rare-earth magnets to the US. Despite the latest tensions, Chinese equities have rallied sharply this month, with the Shanghai index hitting its highest level since 2015. Analysts note that part of the momentum has been driven by China’s 160 trillion yuan in household savings shifting away from real estate and into equities, particularly in technology-enabled sectors such as semiconductors and renewables. Trading was mixed across sectors, with notable losses from China Northern Rare Earth (-4%) and Cambricon Technologies (-3.4%), while Suzhou TFC (+17.5%) and Takweb Information (+10%) advanced strongly.