欧元保持在1.155美元上方，接近10月下旬以来的最高水平，因为投资者希望美国政府关门可能很快结束，并等待欧洲央行和美联储官员的进一步政策指导。普遍预计欧洲央行将在可预见的未来保持利率稳定，这得益于经济的弹性和通胀接近目标，货币市场目前认为到2026年9月降息的可能性只有40%。周一，欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos在接受采访时表示，目前的政策利率是适当的，并强调欧洲央行需要保持“非常谨慎和谨慎”，尽管在美欧贸易协议达成后的过去六个月里，不确定性有所缓解。与此同时，在美国，疲软的国内数据，包括10月失业、消费者信心急剧下降至历史第二低，以及裁员达到20年来的最高点，重新引发了人们对美联储12月降息的预期。
The euro held above $1.155, near its strongest level since late October, as investors hope the US government shutdown may soon end and await remarks from ECB and Fed officials for further policy guidance. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates steady for the foreseeable future, supported by a resilient economy and inflation tracking near target, with money markets currently assigning only a 40% probability of a rate cut by September 2026. On Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview that policy rates are currently appropriate and stressed the need for the ECB to remain “very prudent and cautious,” even as uncertainty has eased over the past six months following a US-EU trade deal. Meanwhile, in the US, weak domestic data, including October job losses, a sharp drop in consumer sentiment to its second-lowest reading on record, and layoffs reaching a 20-year high, reignited expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
