欧洲股市抹去了早盘涨幅，周二收盘大多下跌，因为市场继续评估美国的潜在关税可能会如何损害欧洲企业。斯托克50指数下跌0.3%，收于5358点，斯托克600指数下跌0.4%，收于545点。美国总统特朗普此前宣布，从8月1日起对来自欧盟的进口商品征收30%的关税，促使欧盟继续寻求达成贸易协定。欧盟官员最近表示，一项避免关税的协议仍在谈判中，但无论如何，一项报复计划正在准备中，这可能会对价值720亿欧元的美国商品征收关税。金融服务提供商领跌，安联、西班牙对外银行和联合信贷银行下跌2%至1%。此外，由于美国进口关税对业绩造成压力，爱立信股价下跌超过4%，尽管该公司盈利超出预期。另一方面，得益于美国放宽对Nvidia芯片的出口限制，ASML上涨2.7%。

European stocks erased early gains and closed mostly lower on Tuesday as markets continued to assess how potential tariffs from the US may hurt European businesses. The STOXX 50 closed 0.3% lower at 5,358 and the STOXX 600 fell 0.4% to close at 545. US President Trump had previously announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union starting August 1st, prompting the bloc to continue to seek a trade agreement. EU officials recently stated that a deal is still being negotiated to avoid tariffs, but a retaliation package is being prepared regardless, which may tariff up to€72 billion worth of US goods. Financial service providers led the losses in the session, with Allianz, BBVA, and UniCredit dropping between 2% and 1%. Also, Ericsson fell over 4%, despite the company beating earnings forecasts, as US import tariffs weighed on results. On the other hand, ASML jumped 2.7%, benefitting from the US relaxing export curbs on Nvidia chips.

2025年7月，欧元区ZEW经济情绪指标较上月上升0.8点，至36.1，为四个月来的最高水平，但低于市场预期的37.8。7月份，约48.1%的受访分析师预计经济活动不会发生变化，44%的人预计经济活动会有所改善，7.9%的人预计会恶化。与此同时，当前经济形势指标上升6.5点至-24.2，通胀预期上升8.9点至-5.8。

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area rose by 0.8 points from the prior month to 36.1 in July 2025, the highest reading in four months, though missing market estimates of 37.8. In July, about 48.1% of the surveyed analysts expected no changes in economic activity, 44% predicted improvement and 7.9% anticipated a deterioration. In the meantime, the indicator of the current economic situation increased by 6.5 points to -24.2 and inflation expectations rose by 8.9 points to -5.8.

2025年5月，欧元区工业生产环比增长1.7%，扭转了4月份2.2%的下降趋势，超过了市场0.9%的增长预期。能源（3.7%对-2.8%）、资本货物（2.7%对-1.3%）和非耐用消费品（8.5%对-5.7%）的产出反弹。另一方面，中间产品（-1.7%对-0.8%）和耐用消费品（-1.9%对-0.4%）的产量进一步下降。按年度计算，5月份工业产出增长从4月份的0.2%加速至3.7%，高于2.4%的增长预测。

Euro Area industrial production rose by 1.7% month-over-month in May 2025, reversing from a 2.2% fall in April and beating market expectations for a 0.9% increase. Output rebounded for energy (3.7% vs -2.8%), capital goods (2.7% vs -1.3%) and non-durable consumer goods (8.5% vs -5.7%). On the other hand, production fell further for intermediate goods (-1.7% vs -0.8%) and durable consumer goods (-1.9% vs -0.4%). On an annual basis, industrial output growth accelerated to 3.7% in May from 0.2% in April, above forecasts of a 2.4% increase.

欧元兑美元汇率在1.17美元左右，徘徊在三周低点附近，交易员权衡了持续的贸易发展。美国总统特朗普宣布从8月1日开始对来自欧盟的进口商品征收30%的关税，尽管他后来表示对谈判持开放态度。作为回应，欧盟重申了其确保贸易协定的承诺，并表示将推迟立即采取反制措施，将暂停计划中的报复性关税延长至8月初，以便继续对话。在货币政策方面，投资者普遍预计欧洲央行将在下周的会议上保持借贷成本不变。然而，市场仍预计今年晚些时候将再降息25个基点。尽管最近7月有所回落，但欧元兑美元汇率今年迄今仍上涨近13%，这得益于美元的普遍疲软和对欧元区经济前景的重新乐观，特别是在德国转向增加财政支出之后。

The euro traded around $1.17, hovering near a three-week low, as traders weighed ongoing trade developments. US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union starting August 1st, though he later signaled openness to negotiations. In response, the EU reiterated its commitment to securing a trade agreement and said it would hold off on immediate countermeasures, extending the suspension of planned retaliatory tariffs until early August to allow for continued dialogue. On the monetary policy front, investors largely expect the ECB to keep borrowing costs unchanged at next week’s meeting. However, markets are still pricing in one more 25bps rate cut later this year. Despite the recent pullback in July, the euro remains up nearly 13% against the dollar year-to-date, supported by broad dollar weakness and renewed optimism about the eurozone’s economic outlook, particularly after Germany’s shift toward increased fiscal spending.