欧洲股市在前一天短暂上涨后，周四收盘大幅下跌，因为投资者权衡了新一轮企业盈利喜忧参半和美国失业率上升的迹象。STOXX 50指数下跌1%，至5613点，STOXX 600指数下跌0.7%，至567点。德国商业银行股价下跌2%，此前该行公布净利润同比意外下降7.9%。此外，帝亚吉欧在下调全年展望后下跌6.5%，而马士基尽管公布了乐观的业绩，但下跌5.1%，莱茵金属尽管公布了20%的销售额增长，但下跌0.5%。从好的方面来看，尽管贸易紧张局势持续，DHL仍实现了盈利增长，上涨5.4%，跻身表现最佳的公司之列。此外，阿斯利康在公布创纪录的季度收入并重申其全年指导方针后上涨了2.9%。塞恩斯伯里在上调前景后上涨1.4%。

European stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday after a brief uptick the previous day as investors weighed a fresh round of mixed corporate earnings and signs of higher unemployment in the US. The STOXX 50 fell 1% to 5,613 and the STOXX 600 fell 0.7% to 567. Commerzbank shares slipped 2% after the lender reported a surprise 7.9% year-on-year drop in net profit. Also, Diageo fell 6.5% following a downgrade to its full-year outlook, while Maersk lost 5.1% despite posting upbeat results and Rheinmetall fell 0.5% despite posting a 20% increase in sales. On the upside, DHL jumped 5.4% to rank among the top performers after achieving earnings growth despite ongoing trade tensions. Also, AstraZeneca added 2.9% after posting record quarterly revenue and reaffirming its full-year guidance. Sainsbury’s gained 1.4% after raising its outlook.

欧元收涨超过1.15美元大关，试图从三个月低点反弹，因投资者权衡欧洲央行和美联储之间不同的政策前景。预计欧洲央行将在一段时间内保持利率不变，货币市场目前预计到2026年9月降息的可能性只有45%，远低于10月份的80%以上。与此同时，几位欧洲央行官员采取了谨慎的语气：François Villeroy de Galhau表示，央行必须保持政策选择的开放性，Joachim Nagel敦促对通胀保持警惕，副行长Luis de Guindos指出，通胀率降至2%以下可能是暂时的。在大西洋彼岸，挑战者数据显示10月份裁员人数飙升至20年来的最高点，重新引发了对美联储近期降息的押注，抵消了前一天ADP和ISM数据的走强，美元面临压力。

The euro consolidated gains above the $1.15 mark, attempting to recover from a three-month low as investors weighed diverging policy outlooks between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged for some time, with money markets now pricing only a 45% chance of a rate cut by September 2026, down sharply from over 80% in October. Meanwhile, several ECB officials struck a cautious tone: François Villeroy de Galhau said the central bank must keep policy options open, Joachim Nagel urged vigilance on inflation, and Vice President Luis de Guindos noted any dip below 2% inflation would likely be temporary. Across the Atlantic, the US dollar came under pressure after Challenger data revealed layoffs surged to a 20-year high for October, reigniting bets on a near-term Fed rate cut and offsetting the previous day’s stronger ADP and ISM readings.

2025年9月，欧元区零售额环比下降0.1%，标志着连续第三个月出现收缩或停滞，未达到0.2%的增长预期。燃料销售额下降1.0%，连续第三个月下降，而非食品销售额在8月份下降0.5%后下降0.2%。相比之下，食品、饮料和烟草销售在上个月温和增长0.4%后没有变化。在主要经济体中，意大利（-0.6%）、荷兰（-0.4%）和法国（-0.1%）的零售贸易有所下降，但西班牙（+0.4%）和德国（+0.2%）有所上升。按年度计算，零售贸易增长从8月份的1.6%放缓至1.0%，符合预期。

Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1% month-on-month in September 2025, marking a third straight month of contraction or stagnation and missing expectations for a 0.2% increase. Sales of fuel dropped 1.0%, extending their decline for a third consecutive month, while non-food sales fell 0.2% after a 0.5% decrease in August. In contrast, food, drinks, and tobacco sales were unchanged following a modest 0.4% rise in the previous month. Among major economies, retail trade declined in Italy (-0.6%), the Netherlands (-0.4%), and France (-0.1%), but rose in Spain (+0.4%) and Germany (+0.2%). On an annual basis, retail trade growth slowed to 1.0%, in line with expectations, from 1.6% in August.

HCOB建筑业采购经理人指数在2025年10月降至44，为八个月来最大跌幅，远低于9月的46，这标志着增长。由于住房和土木工程的进一步衰退，新订单大幅下降，而商业活动也减弱，产量急剧收缩。德国和法国经济持续收缩，法国下降最快，而意大利在经历了四个月的下降后仅实现了小幅增长。公司再次裁员和采购，延长了长期的裁员，分包商的使用大幅下降。尽管法国的成本压力有所上升，但投入成本通胀已降至七个月来的最低点。供应链略有恶化，三大经济体都报告了更长的交付周期。在需求疲软的情况下，企业对未来一年的前景仍然持悲观态度，尽管意大利企业是近一年半来最乐观的，这与法国日益恶化的情绪和德国持续的谨慎形成鲜明对比。

The HCOB Construction PMI dropped to 44 in October 2025, its steepest decline in eight months and well below the 50 mark that signals growth, from 46 in September. Output contracted sharply as new orders slumped, driven by deeper downturns in housing and civil engineering, while commercial activity also weakened. Germany and France saw continued contractions, with France declining the fastest, while Italy recorded only marginal growth after four months of declines. Firms cut jobs and purchasing again, extending long-running retrenchment, and subcontractor use fell sharply. Input cost inflation eased to a seven-month low, though French cost pressures picked up. Supply chains worsened slightly, with all three major economies reporting longer lead times. Businesses remained pessimistic about the year-ahead outlook amid weak demand, although Italian firms were the most optimistic in nearly a year and a half, contrasting with worsening sentiment in France and persistent caution in Germany.