周五欧元升至1.13美元以上，此前欧元区通胀数据强于预期，美国非农就业报告公布，投资者正在寻找美联储政策前景的线索。最新的CPI数据显示，4月份欧元区通胀率稳定在2.2%，略高于预期的2.1%。值得注意的是，服务业通胀加速至3.9%，核心通胀率（不包括食品和能源）升至2.7%，也超过了预期。在美国，即将发布的就业报告预计将显示招聘放缓，4月份非农就业人数可能仅增加13万人，远低于3月份的22.8万人，原因是唐纳德·特朗普总统激进的关税立场带来的不确定性增加。与此同时，在北京表示正在“评估”美国最近提出的重启谈判的建议后，美中贸易紧张局势可能解冻的迹象提振了市场情绪。

The euro rose above $1.13 on Friday after stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data and ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors looked for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The latest CPI figures showed Euro Area inflation held steady at 2.2% in April, slightly above the expected 2.1%. Notably, services inflation accelerated to 3.9%, and core inflation—which excludes food and energy—rose to 2.7%, also surpassing forecasts. In the U.S., the upcoming jobs report is expected to show a slowdown in hiring, with non-farm payrolls likely increasing by just 130,000 in April, down sharply from 228,000 in March, amid rising uncertainty linked to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff stance. Meanwhile, market sentiment was lifted by signs of a potential thaw in U.S.–China trade tensions, after Beijing said it is “evaluating” recent U.S. proposals for renewed negotiations.

2025年3月，欧元区的失业率保持在6.2%的历史低点，连续第六个月保持不变，略高于预测的6.1%。然而，失业人数比上月增加了8.3万人，达到1081.8万人。与此同时，反映25岁以下求职者的青年失业率从上月的14.3%降至14.2%。在欧盟最大的经济体中，德国（3.5%）和荷兰（3.9%）报告的失业率最低，而西班牙（10.9%）、法国（7.3%）和意大利（6%）的失业率继续上升。一年前，失业率高达6.5%。

The unemployment rate in the Euro Area remained at a record low of 6.2% in March 2025, unchanged for the sixth consecutive month, marginally above the predicted 6.1%. However, the number of unemployed individuals increased by 83 thousand from the prior month to 10.818 million. Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate, reflecting those under 25 seeking employment, edged down to 14.2% from 14.3% in the prior month. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Germany (3.5%) and the Netherlands (3.9%) reported the lowest unemployment rates, while Spain (10.9%), France (7.3%), and Italy (6%) continued to see higher levels. A year ago, the jobless rate was higher at 6.5%.

据初步估计，2025年4月，欧元区的消费者价格通胀率稳定在2.2%，略高于市场预期的2.1%，徘徊在欧洲央行2.0%的目标中点之上。能源价格的大幅下跌（-3.5%对3月份的-1.0%）被服务业（3.9%对3.5%）和食品、酒精和烟草（3.0%对2.9%）的更快通货膨胀所抵消。非能源工业品价格上涨0.6%，与3月份持平。与此同时，不包括食品和能源的核心通胀率攀升至2.7%，高于3月份2.4%的三年低点，也高于2.5%的预测。按月计算，4月份消费者价格指数上涨0.6%，与3月份的涨幅持平。

Consumer price inflation in the Euro Area remained steady at 2.2% in April 2025, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.1% and hovering just above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target midpoint, according to a preliminary estimate. A sharper drop in energy prices (-3.5% vs. -1.0% in March) was offset by faster inflation in services (3.9% vs. 3.5%) and food, alcohol, and tobacco (3.0% vs. 2.9%). Prices for non-energy industrial goods rose by 0.6%, unchanged from March. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.7%, up from March’s three-year low of 2.4% and above the forecast of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.6% in April, matching March’s rise.

HCOB欧元区制造业采购经理人指数从上个月的48.6微升至2025年4月的49，反映了两年多来工厂活动收缩速度最慢，并从初步估计的48.7上调。由于欧元在此期间大幅升值以及美国和中国贸易战担忧导致的宏观经济状况疲软，出口订单大幅下降，新订单继续收缩。尽管如此，积压的减少和需求的近乎稳定促使工厂将产量加快到三年来的最高水平。在就业方面，围绕美国关税的风险促使企业削减招聘和裁员。在价格方面，更快的交付周期与自去年11月以来投入成本的首次下降是一致的，尽管产出费用是两年来涨幅最大的。

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI inched higher to 49 in April of 2025 from 48.6 in the previous month, reflecting the softest pace of contraction in factory activity in over two years, and revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 48.7. New orders continued to contract amid a sharp decline in export orders, owed to the sharp appreciation of the euro in the period and weak macroeconomic conditions due to trade war concerns in the US and China. Still, backlog reductions and a near stabilization in demand drove factories to accelerate their output to a three-year high. On the employment front, risks surrounding tariffs from the US drove firms to pare back hiring and trim headcounts. On the price front, quicker lead times were consistent with the first drop in input costs since November of last year, although output charges rose the most in two years.