法国10年期政府债券收益率扭转早些时候的涨势,降至3.33%,为7月23日以来的最低水平,此前低于预期的美国就业报告加深了人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。7月份的数据显示,美国经济仅增加了73000个工作岗位,远低于10万个预测,而5月和6月的就业数据也大幅下调。因此,市场将美联储9月份降息的可能性从发布前的45%大幅提高到75%。与此同时,对欧洲央行进一步放松货币政策的预期仍然更加谨慎。尽管欧元区通胀率预计将在短期内保持在欧洲央行的预测之上,但市场目前认为,到12月降息25个基点的可能性为60%,而此前为50%。7月份欧元区消费者通胀率稳定在2.0%,略高于1.9%的市场预期。投资者还评估了新宣布的美国关税的潜在经济影响,包括对来自欧盟的进口商品征收15%的关税。
France’s 10-year government bond yield reversed earlier gains to decline to 3.33%, its lowest level since July 23, after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report deepened concerns about labor market weakness. The July data showed the US economy added only 73,000 jobs, well below the 100,000 forecast, while May and June’s job numbers were also revised sharply lower. As a result, markets have raised the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September to 75%, up sharply from 45% before the release. Meanwhile, expectations for additional monetary easing by the ECB remain more measured. Although eurozone inflation is expected to stay above the ECB’s projections in the near term, markets now assign a 60% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by December, compared to 50% previously. Euro area consumer inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, slightly exceeding the 1.9% market estimate. Investors also assessed the potential economic impact of newly announced US tariffs, including a 15% duty on imports from the EU.