法国10年期政府债券收益率微升至3.36%，投资者评估了美国新征收关税和欧元区最新通胀数据的影响。美国的有效关税率已从年初的略高于2%跃升至约15%，创下20世纪30年代以来的最高水平。在8月1日截止日期前最后一刻达成协议后，欧盟现在面临对美国出口15%的关税。在通胀方面，7月份欧元区消费者价格同比上涨2.0%，与欧洲央行连续第二个月的目标一致，但略高于市场预期的1.9%。核心通胀率稳定在2.3%。随着未来几个月整体通胀率预计将高于欧洲央行的预测，进一步降息的可能性已经降低。在美国，美联储主席鲍威尔的鹰派言论进一步降低了市场对9月会议降息的预期。

France's 10-year government bond yield edged up to 3.36% as investors assessed the implications of newly imposed US tariffs and the latest Eurozone inflation figures. The effective US tariff rate has jumped to approximately 15%, up from just over 2% at the start of the year—marking its highest level since the 1930s. The EU now faces a 15% tariff on exports to the US, following a last-minute agreement reached just ahead of the August 1 deadline. On the inflation front, Eurozone consumer prices rose 2.0% yoy in July, in line with the ECB’s target for a second consecutive month, though slightly above market expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained stable at 2.3%. With headline inflation expected to stay above ECB forecasts in the coming months, the likelihood of further rate cuts has diminished. In the US, Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments have further reduced the market’s expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting.

HCOB法国制造业采购经理人指数在2025年7月为48.2，略低于最初估计的48.4，与6月份的48.1基本持平。该指数仍低于50的阈值，表明该行业持续疲软。7月份，由于国内需求疲软和出口下降，新订单急剧下降，且下降速度加快，这是自1月以来的最大降幅。虽然这对产量造成了压力，但与前几个时期相比，工厂产量的下降幅度较小。与此同时，法国商品生产商在7月份降低了采购量，延续了自2022年中期以来持续的采购活动的稳步下降。7月份工厂就业人数连续第三个月增加，但就业增长微乎其微。在价格方面，7月份的成本压力相对较轻。展望未来，商业信心降至2月以来的最低水平，结束了连续八个月的预期改善。

The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 in July 2025, slightly lower than initial estimates of 48.4 and broadly unchanged from June’s reading of 48.1. The reading remained below the 50 threshold, indicating persistent weakness in the sector. New orders fell sharply and at an accelerated pace in July, marking the steepest decline since January, amid weak domestic demand and falling exports. While this weighed on production volumes, the decline in factory production was milder compared to previous periods. Meanwhile, French goods producers lowered their purchasing volumes in July, continuing the solid decline in buying activity that has persisted since mid-2022. Factory employment increased for the third straight month in July, but job growth was marginal. On the price front, cost pressures were relatively soft in July. Looking forward, business confidence sank to its lowest level since February, ending an eight-month sequence of improving expectations.

CAC 40指数周五下跌1.4%，至7663点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，触及一个月来的最低水平。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普实施全面的新关税后，市场情绪恶化，包括全球10%的基准、对没有正式贸易协议的国家征收高达41%的报复性关税，以及对涉嫌规避关税的商品征收40%的税。在最后一刻达成协议后，欧洲现在面临对美国出口15%的关税。与此同时，企业盈利持续增长。在公布第二季度业绩并下调2025年增长预测后，Teleperformance暴跌17%，至2016年6月以来的最低水平。此外，安盛在上半年利润令人失望后，股价下跌6.2%，至4月以来的最低点。圣戈班股价下跌4.5%，也跌至一个月低点，此前销售额勉强低于预期。最后，由于收益下降，Engie股价下跌3.8%，至5月以来的最低水平。本周，CAC 40指数有望大幅下跌。

The CAC 40 dropped 1.4% to 7,663 on Friday, extending losses from the previous session and hitting its lowest level in a month. Market sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs, including a global 10% baseline, retaliatory duties of up to 41% on nations without formal trade deals, and a 40% levy on goods suspected of tariff circumvention. Europe now faces a 15% tariff on exports to the US following a last-minute agreement. Meanwhile, corporate earnings continued to unfold. Teleperformance plunged 17% to its lowest level since June 2016 after reporting Q2 results and a cut to its 2025 growth forecast. Moreover, Axa slumped 6.2% to its weakest point since April after disappointing H1 profits. Saint-Gobain declined 4.5%, also to a one-month low, following sales that narrowly missed expectations. Lastly, Engie dropped 3.8% to its lowest since May, amid a decline in earnings. For the week, the CAC 40 is on track for a substantial loss.

在巴黎，CAC 40指数下跌了117点。Teleperformance SE（-16.29%）、AXA（-6.50%）和ENGIE（-3.92%）领跌。

In Paris, the CAC 40 Index is losing 117 points. Losses were led by Teleperformance SE (-16.29%), AXA (-6.50%) and ENGIE (-3.92%).