2025年7月HCOB法国综合采购经理人指数下调至48.6，远低于49.6的初步估计和6月份的49.2。该数据表明，由于制造业（采购经理人指数为48.2对48.1）和服务业（48.5对49.6）的下降，经济出现温和但加速的收缩，标志着连续第11个月出现衰退。这两个行业的需求都有所减弱，尤其是制造业，新业务的大幅下降导致整体销售额出现自4月以来的最大跌幅。服务业的失业人数超过了工厂的招聘人数，导致私营部门的就业人数以三个月来最快的速度下降。关于价格发展，投入成本和产出费用通胀仍低于历史标准。在6月份的改善之后，对未来一年的产出预期急剧减弱，将商业信心推至六个月低点。

The HCOB France Composite PMI for July 2025 was revised down to 48.6, significantly below the flash estimate of 49.6 and June’s 49.2. The reading points to a moderate yet accelerating contraction, marking the 11th straight month of downturn, driven by declines in both manufacturing (PMI at 48.2 vs 48.1) and services (48.5 vs 49.6). Demand weakened in both sectors, particularly manufacturing, with sharper declines in new business causing the biggest drop in overall sales since April. Job losses in services outweighed factory hiring, causing private sector employment to decline at its fastest pace in three months. Regarding price developments, Input cost and output charge inflation remained subdued by historical standards. Year-ahead output expectations weakened sharply after June’s improvement, pushing business confidence to a six-month low.

CAC 40指数周二开盘几乎持平，至7635点左右，在周一从上周的抛售中大幅回升1.1%后暂停，因为市场焦点转向了一批好坏参半的经济数据。法国6月份工业生产飙升3.8%，为2020年7月以来的最大月度涨幅，大幅超过预期，并从5月份修正后的0.7%的跌幅中反弹。然而，7月份服务业采购经理人指数下调至48.5，这是自4月以来最快的收缩，标志着该行业连续第11个月下降。与此同时，投资者情绪受到就业数据低于预期后，对美国9月降息的预期日益增长的支撑。在个人市场中，赛峰集团（2.7%）、法国巴黎银行（2.6%）和施耐德电气（2.3%）领涨，而路威酩轩集团（-0.4%）、欧莱雅（-0.6%）和EssilorLuxottica（-0.4%。

The CAC 40 index started nearly flat to around 7,635 on Tuesday, pausing after Monday’s sharp 1.1% recovery from last week’s sell-off, as market focus turned to a mixed batch of economic data. France’s industrial production surged 3.8% in June—the strongest monthly gain since July 2020—sharply beating forecasts and rebounding from May’s revised 0.7% drop. However, the services PMI was revised down to 48.5 in July, indicating the fastest contraction since April and marking an eleventh consecutive month of decline in the sector. Meanwhile, investor sentiment was supported by growing expectations of a US rate cut in September following weaker-than-expected job data. Among individual movers, Safran (2.7%), BNP Paribas (2.6%), and Schneider Electric (2.3%) led the gains, while LVMH (-0.4%), L'Oréal (-0.6%), and EssilorLuxottica (-0.4%) were among the top laggards.

HCOB法国服务业采购经理人指数从6月份的49.6降至2025年7月的48.5，低于最初估计的49.7。这标志着服务业活动自4月以来最快的收缩，并将该行业的下滑延长至连续11个月。产出和新订单下降速度加快，主要是由于国内需求疲软，客户在政治不确定性中推迟了决策。然而，出口业务略有增长。就业人数再次下降，公司称临时合同未续签，以及由于工作量减少而决定不替换自愿离职者。随着各公司专注于清理现有订单，积压的工作继续减少。在价格方面，受工资和材料成本上涨的推动，投入成本通胀保持温和。因此，受激烈竞争的限制，收费仅略有上涨。展望未来，商业信心在6月份反弹后急剧恶化，乐观情绪降至2021年中期以来的最低水平。

The HCOB France Services PMI fell to 48.5 in July 2025 from 49.6 in June, revised down from the initial estimate of 49.7. This marked the fastest contraction in services activity since April and extended the sector’s decline to eleven consecutive months. Output and new orders fell at a quicker pace, mainly due to weak domestic demand, as clients delayed decisions amid political uncertainty. Export business, however, showed slight growth. Employment declined again, with firms citing the non-renewal of temporary contracts and the decision not to replace voluntary leavers due to subdued workloads. Backlogs of work continued to fall as firms focused on clearing existing orders. On prices, input cost inflation remained modest, driven by rising wages and material costs. As a result, prices charged rose only slightly, constrained by strong competition. Looking ahead, business confidence deteriorated sharply after a rebound in June, with optimism falling to its lowest level since mid-2021.

法国10年期政府债券收益率跌至3.3%以下，为7月23日以来的最低水平，投资者评估了令人失望的美国就业数据、欧元区通胀弹性以及美国新关税对经济影响的持续不确定性的影响。7月，美国经济增加的就业人数低于预期，而前几个月则出现了明显的下调。这导致市场预计美联储今年将再降息两次，第一次可能最早在9月到来。与此同时，货币市场预计，到2025年底，欧洲央行降息的可能性为60%，到2026年3月将升至80%。预计欧洲央行将保持谨慎态度，密切关注美国贸易政策和通胀发展的影响。7月份欧元区通胀率稳定在2.0%，略高于1.9%的预测，与欧洲央行连续第二个月的目标一致。

France’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 3.3%, its lowest level since July 23, as investors assessed the impact of disappointing US jobs data, resilient Eurozone inflation, and ongoing uncertainty over the economic fallout from new US tariffs. In July, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while previous months saw notable downward revisions. This has led markets to anticipate two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the first potentially arriving as early as September. At the same time, money markets are pricing in a 60% chance of an ECB rate cut by the end of 2025, rising to 80% by March 2026. The ECB is expected to maintain a cautious approach, keeping a close eye on the effects of US trade policy and inflation developments. Eurozone inflation remained steady at 2.0% in July, slightly above the 1.9% forecast and in line with the ECB’s target for the second straight month.