CAC 40指数周四上涨0.2%，收于7755点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，因为全球贸易关系出现令人鼓舞的迹象，市场情绪有所改善。一个积极的发展是，美国取消了对向中国出口芯片设计软件的限制，允许美国公司无需许可证即可恢复销售。与此同时，尽管美国对越南和其他东南亚国家的商品发出了新的关税威胁，但市场仍保持弹性，投资者认为紧张局势将仅限于特定行业。在欧洲，服务业采购经理人指数的发布表明欧元区经济恢复增长，增强了投资者的积极情绪。涨幅最大的公司包括STMicro（2.3%）、泰雷兹（2.1%）和法国兴业银行（1.9%）。在下行方面，一些股票逆势而上，例如LVMH在连续上涨后的回调（-0.5%），Engie（-2.3%）和开云（-2.1%）领涨。

The CAC 40 rose 0.2% at close to 7,755 on Thursday, extending the previous session's gains as market sentiment improved amid encouraging signs on global trade relations. In a positive development, the United States lifted restrictions on the export of chip design software to China, allowing US companies to resume sales without the need for a license. Meanwhile, despite new US tariff threats on goods from Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, markets remained resilient, with investors betting that tensions will stay limited to specific sectors. In Europe, the release of the services PMI indicates a resumption of growth in the euro zone, reinforcing positive sentiment among investors. Among the biggest gainers were STMicro (2.3%), Thales (2.1%) and SocGen (1.9%). On the downside, some stocks bucked the trend, such as LVMH's correction (-0.5%), after consecutive gains, and led by Engie (-2.3%) and Kering (-2.1%).

法国10年期政府债券收益率从早些时候的下跌中反弹，收于3.3%附近，因为投资者吸收了强于预期的美国就业报告、最近的贸易更新、对英国公共财政的担忧以及欧洲央行支持持续宽松货币政策的信号。美国经济在6月份增加了14.7万个工作岗位，远高于预测的11万个，而失业率意外降至4.1%，加强了对美联储降息的预期。与此同时，欧盟表示已准备好与美国达成贸易协议，但也为在特朗普总统7月9日的最后期限之前无法达成协议的可能性做好了准备。在货币方面，市场现在预计欧洲央行在年底前只会再降息一次，因为官员们在对全球贸易紧张局势、中东不稳定和欧元最近走强的持续担忧中采取了谨慎、观望的态度。

France’s 10-year government bond yield rebounded from earlier declines to settle near 3.3%, as investors absorbed a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, recent trade updates, concerns over UK public finances, and signals from the ECB supporting a continued accommodative monetary policy. The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, well above the forecasted 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, strengthening expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the EU signaled its readiness for a trade deal with the US but also prepared for the possibility that no agreement will be reached before President Trump’s July 9 deadline. On the monetary front, markets now expect just one more ECB rate cut before year-end, as officials take a cautious, wait-and-see approach amid persistent concerns over global trade tensions, Middle East instability, and the euro’s recent strengthening.

HCOB法国服务业采购经理人指数从前一个月的48.9升至2025年6月的49.6，超过了最初估计的48.7。虽然最新数据标志着服务业连续第十个月出现收缩，但这是当前十个月序列中最慢的一次，与2024年9月持平。新订单的下降连续第二个月放缓，是自1月以来最不明显的。与此同时，由于几家公司报告裁减了长期员工，就业人数继续减少。在通胀方面，投入成本压力相对较小，而产出价格在过去五个月内第四次上涨。最后，6月份商业信心显著改善，服务提供商对未来一年越来越乐观，因为缓解通胀压力和对更宽松货币政策的预期被视为可能支持家庭支出和商业投资的关键因素。

The HCOB France Services PMI rose to 49.6 in June 2025 from 48.9 in the previous month, exceeding the initial estimate of 48.7. While the latest figure marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction in the services sector, the decline was the joint-slowest in the current ten-month sequence—matching that seen in September 2024. The fall in new orders moderated for the second consecutive month and was the least pronounced since January. Meanwhile, employment continued to shrink, as several firms reported reductions in permanent staff. On the inflation front, input cost pressures remained relatively muted, while output prices rose for the fourth time in the past five months. Lastly, business confidence improved significantly in June, with service providers increasingly optimistic about the year ahead, as easing inflationary pressures and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy are seen as key factors likely to support household spending and business investment.

HCOB法国综合采购经理人指数在2025年6月为49.2，与5月的49.3基本持平，并从48.5的初步估计上调。持续低迷反映了制造业疲软（5月份为48.1比49.8），同时服务业活动持续下降（49.6比48.9），尽管下降幅度较小。新订单继续下降，尽管下降速度是五个月来最慢的，尽管服务业出口略有上升，但来自国外的新业务也有所下降。尽管产出和新订单持续疲软，但随着制造业和服务业的情绪改善，商业信心跃升至2024年9月以来的最高水平。就业总体略有下降，因为制造业就业岗位的增加被服务业的削减所抵消。在价格方面，投入成本通胀放缓至相对温和的水平，而产出价格在5月份下跌后略有回升。

The HCOB France Composite PMI came in at 49.2 in June 2025, broadly unchanged from 49.3 in May, and revised higher from a flash estimate of 48.5. The sustained downturn reflected a subdued manufacturing sector (48.1 vs. 49.8 in May), alongside a continued, albeit softer, decline in services activity (49.6 vs. 48.9). New orders continued to decrease, though the pace of decline was the slowest in five months, while new business from abroad also fell despite a marginal rise in service sector exports. Despite ongoing weakness in output and new orders, business confidence jumped to its highest level since September 2024, as sentiment improved across both manufacturing and services. Employment edged down slightly overall, as gains in manufacturing jobs were offset by cuts in the service sector. On prices, input cost inflation eased to a relatively modest rate, while output prices ticked up marginally after falling in May.