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France’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 3.2% as investors remained focused on mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ongoing inflation risks, and the outlook for monetary policy. The situation escalated after the US joined the conflict and launched airstrikes on Iran, fueling concerns over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil transport, which could push oil prices higher. Economically, flash PMIs delivered mixed signals: private sector activity in the Euro Area showed signs of stabilizing, with Germany returning to growth, while France posted a deeper contraction. At the same time, markets continue to expect a 25-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in September, which would reduce the key deposit rate to 1.75%.

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The CAC 40 index dropped 0.4% to below 7,565 on Monday, pulling back to its lowest level since late April, after a major escalation in Middle East tensions rattled global markets. The decline followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, marking Washington’s direct entry into the Israel-Iran conflict. The move shocked markets, despite earlier remarks from Trump suggesting a diplomatic approach. Investors are now bracing for possible retaliation from Tehran, including threats to US personnel or disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—risks that could disrupt global energy markets. Adding to pressure, flash PMI data showed France’s private sector activity shrank further in June, with both services and manufacturing slipping deeper into contraction territory. On the corporate side, losses were broad-based, led by LVMH (-0.9%), Loreal (-0.8%), and Air Liquide (-1.8%). Conversely, the energy sector offered some support amid rising oil prices.

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The CAC 40 index dropped 0.4% to below 7,565 on Monday, pulling back to its lowest level since late April, after a major escalation in Middle East tensions rattled global markets. The decline followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, marking Washington’s direct entry into the Israel-Iran conflict. The move shocked markets, despite earlier remarks from Trump suggesting a diplomatic approach. Investors are now bracing for possible retaliation from Tehran, including threats to US personnel or disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—risks that could disrupt global energy markets. Adding to pressure, flash PMI data showed France’s private sector activity shrank further in June, with both services and manufacturing slipping deeper into contraction territory. On the corporate side, losses were broad-based, led by LVMH (-0.9%), Loreal (-0.8%), and Air Liquide (-1.8%). Conversely, the energy sector offered some support amid rising oil prices.

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The HCOB Flash Composite PMI for France fell to 48.5 in June 2025, down from 49.3 in May and below market expectations of 49.3, flash estimates showed. The data signaled a tenth consecutive month of contraction in the country’s private sector, with the downturn deepening slightly due to continued weak demand. The decline was broad-based across sectors, led by manufacturing, where the PMI dropped to a four-month low of 47.8 from 49.8 in May. The services sector also underperformed, though its activity remained broadly unchanged from the previous month (PMI at 48.7 vs 48.9). Overall sales continued to fall for the 13th consecutive month, with the pace of decline accelerating slightly, including for export orders. Falling volumes of outstanding business led to further job reductions. On the price front, input cost inflation remained stable, while selling prices rose only modestly due to subdued demand. Lastly, business confidence improved, reaching an eight-month high after May’s low.