HCOB法国服务业采购经理人指数从前一个月的48.9升至2025年6月的49.6，超过了最初估计的48.7。虽然最新数据标志着服务业连续第十个月出现收缩，但这是当前十个月序列中最慢的一次，与2024年9月持平。新订单的下降连续第二个月放缓，是自1月以来最不明显的。与此同时，由于几家公司报告裁减了长期员工，就业人数继续减少。在通胀方面，投入成本压力相对较小，而产出价格在过去五个月内第四次上涨。最后，6月份商业信心显著改善，服务提供商对未来一年越来越乐观，因为缓解通胀压力和对更宽松货币政策的预期被视为可能支持家庭支出和商业投资的关键因素。

The HCOB France Services PMI rose to 49.6 in June 2025 from 48.9 in the previous month, exceeding the initial estimate of 48.7. While the latest figure marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction in the services sector, the decline was the joint-slowest in the current ten-month sequence—matching that seen in September 2024. The fall in new orders moderated for the second consecutive month and was the least pronounced since January. Meanwhile, employment continued to shrink, as several firms reported reductions in permanent staff. On the inflation front, input cost pressures remained relatively muted, while output prices rose for the fourth time in the past five months. Lastly, business confidence improved significantly in June, with service providers increasingly optimistic about the year ahead, as easing inflationary pressures and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy are seen as key factors likely to support household spending and business investment.

HCOB法国综合采购经理人指数在2025年6月为49.2，与5月的49.3基本持平，并从48.5的初步估计上调。持续低迷反映了制造业疲软（5月份为48.1比49.8），同时服务业活动持续下降（49.6比48.9），尽管下降幅度较小。新订单继续下降，尽管下降速度是五个月来最慢的，尽管服务业出口略有上升，但来自国外的新业务也有所下降。尽管产出和新订单持续疲软，但随着制造业和服务业的情绪改善，商业信心跃升至2024年9月以来的最高水平。就业总体略有下降，因为制造业就业岗位的增加被服务业的削减所抵消。在价格方面，投入成本通胀放缓至相对温和的水平，而产出价格在5月份下跌后略有回升。

The HCOB France Composite PMI came in at 49.2 in June 2025, broadly unchanged from 49.3 in May, and revised higher from a flash estimate of 48.5. The sustained downturn reflected a subdued manufacturing sector (48.1 vs. 49.8 in May), alongside a continued, albeit softer, decline in services activity (49.6 vs. 48.9). New orders continued to decrease, though the pace of decline was the slowest in five months, while new business from abroad also fell despite a marginal rise in service sector exports. Despite ongoing weakness in output and new orders, business confidence jumped to its highest level since September 2024, as sentiment improved across both manufacturing and services. Employment edged down slightly overall, as gains in manufacturing jobs were offset by cuts in the service sector. On prices, input cost inflation eased to a relatively modest rate, while output prices ticked up marginally after falling in May.

CAC 40指数周四上涨0.3%，至7763点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，并保持在两周高点附近，因为市场情绪在全球贸易关系令人鼓舞的信号中继续改善。一个积极的发展是，特朗普政府取消了美国芯片设计软件向中国销售的出口许可证要求。此举是旨在重启稀土和先进技术合作的更广泛贸易协定的一部分，标志着美中贸易紧张局势有可能缓和。与此同时，投资者期待着即将公布的欧洲PMI数据。CAC 40指数中的大多数股票都处于上涨区间。值得注意的上涨股包括Teleperformance（2%）、泰雷兹（1.7%）、雅高（1.4%）和Edenred（1.1%）。在下行方面，一些股票逆势上涨。Engie领跌，下跌1%，紧随其后的是阳狮（-0.8%）、开云集团（-0.4%）和爱马仕（-0.2%）等奢侈品股。

The CAC 40 rose 0.3% to 7,763 on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session and remaining near over two-week highs, as market sentiment continued to improve amid encouraging signals on global trade relations. In a positive development, the Trump administration lifted export license requirements for US chip design software sales to China. This move is part of a broader trade agreement aimed at renewing cooperation on rare earths and advanced technologies, signaling a potential thaw in US-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to upcoming PMI data across Europe. Most stocks on the CAC 40 traded in positive territory. Notable gainers included Teleperformance (2%), Thales (1.7%), Accor (1.4%), and Edenred (1.1%). On the downside, a few stocks bucked the trend. Engie led the few decliners, falling 1%, followed by Publicis (-0.8%), and luxury stocks Kering (-0.4%) and Hermès (-0.2%).

CAC 40指数周三上涨1.0%，收于7738点，从上一交易日的小幅下跌中恢复过来，因为投资者关注美国与全球合作伙伴之间的贸易谈判以及欧洲央行论坛。周二，特朗普总统重申不会延长7月9日的贸易最后期限。他对与印度达成协议表示乐观，但对与日本达成协议表示怀疑，并警告称，如果谈判陷入僵局，将征收新的关税。如果华盛顿削减关键部门的关税，欧盟正在考虑接受美国对其出口征收10%的关税。在欧洲央行论坛上，拉加德表示，通胀正在稳定，但现在降息还为时过早。表现最好的包括安赛乐米塔尔（+5.9%）、意法半导体（+4.9%）和路威酩轩集团（+4.1%），在高盛将其列入“欧洲定罪买入”名单后，这些公司股价上涨，认为它“是即将到来的奢侈品复苏中的明显赢家”，而此时中国制造业采购经理人指数的复苏提高了人们对奢侈品新需求的希望。

The CAC 40 rose 1.0% to close at 7,738 on Wednesday, recovering from a slight loss in the previous session as investors focused on trade negotiations between the US and global partners, and the ECB Forum. On Tuesday, President Trump reaffirmed there will be no extension of the July 9th trade deadline. He expressed optimism about a deal with India but cast doubt on one with Japan, warning of new tariffs if talks stall. The EU is considering accepting a 10% US tariff on its exports if Washington cuts duties in key sectors. At the ECB Forum, Lagarde said inflation is stabilizing but it's too early for new rate cuts. Among the top performers were ArcelorMittal (+5.9%), STMicroelectronics (+4.9%) and LVMH (+4.1%), which rose after Goldman Sachs included it in its “European Conviction Buy” list - considering it “a clear winner in the coming luxury recovery” - at a time when the recovery of the Chinese manufacturing PMI has raised hopes of new demand for luxury goods.