德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.66%，追随美国国债收益率的下降，此前低于预期的美国就业报告加剧了人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。数据显示，美国经济在7月份仅增加了73000个工作岗位，低于10万个预测，而5月和6月的就业数据则大幅下调。作为回应，市场现在认为美联储9月份降息的可能性为75%，高于报告前的45%。与此同时，对欧洲央行进一步放松货币政策的预期仍然更加克制。尽管预计未来几个月欧元区通胀率仍将高于欧洲央行的预测，但市场仍预计欧洲央行到12月降息25个基点的可能性为60%，高于美国数据公布前的50%。最近的数据显示，7月份欧元区消费者通胀率稳定在2.0%，略高于普遍预测的1.9%。投资者还权衡了新宣布的美国关税的影响，其中包括对欧盟进口商品征收15%的关税。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell to 2.66%, tracking a decline in US Treasury yields, after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report heightened concerns about labor market softness. The data showed the US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, missing the 100,000 forecast, while May and June’s job numbers were revised sharply lower. In response, markets now assign a 75% probability to a Fed rate cut in September, up from 45% before the report. Meanwhile, expectations for further monetary easing by the ECB remain more restrained. While eurozone inflation is projected to remain above the ECB’s forecasts in the coming months, markets have still priced in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by December—up from 50% before the US data release. Recent data showed eurozone consumer inflation holding steady at 2.0% in July, slightly above the 1.9% consensus forecast. Investors also weighed the impact of newly announced US tariffs, which include a 15% duty on EU imports.

德国10年期国债收益率略高于2.7%，投资者权衡了新宣布的美国关税和欧元区新通胀数据的影响。美国的有效关税率已从年初的略高于2%飙升至15%左右，为20世纪30年代以来的最高水平。在8月1日截止日期前最后一刻达成协议后，欧盟现在对其对美国的出口征收15%的关税。与此同时，7月份欧元区消费者通胀率稳定在2.0%，连续第二个月达到欧洲央行的目标，但略高于市场预期的1.9%。核心通胀率保持在2.3%不变。由于未来几个月整体通胀率可能仍高于欧洲央行的预测，进一步降息的可能性似乎越来越小。尽管如此，市场仍认为，到2026年3月，欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性为90%。在美国，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的鹰派立场降低了人们对9月会议降息的预期。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield hovered slightly above 2.7% as investors weighed the impact of newly announced US tariffs and fresh Eurozone inflation data. The effective US tariff rate has surged to around 15%, up from just over 2% at the start of the year—its highest level since the 1930s. The EU now faces a 15% tariff on its exports to the US, following a last-minute deal reached just before the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, Eurozone consumer inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, matching the ECB’s target for a second straight month but slightly exceeding market expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.3%. With headline inflation likely to remain above the ECB’s projections in the coming months, further rate cuts appear increasingly unlikely. Still, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by March 2026. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance has dampened expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting.

HCOB德国制造业采购经理人指数从初步的49.2略微下调至2025年7月的49.1，与6月的49相比，继续表明制造业商业状况恶化。然而，这是近三年来的最高读数，就业、采购库存和供应商交货时间都产生了积极影响，抵消了产出和新订单增长放缓的影响。在价格方面，德国制造商报告称，由于供应商缺乏定价权和欧元走强的影响，投入成本进一步下降。竞争压力意味着商品生产商将成本节约转嫁给客户，导致平均出厂手续费连续第三个月下降。与此同时，商品生产商对未来一年的增长前景仍然相对乐观，尽管信心程度较6月份的近期高点略有下降。

The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 49.1 in July 2025 from a preliminary of 49.2 and compared to 49 in June, continuing to point to a deterioration in manufacturing business conditions. However, it is the highest reading for nearly three years, with positive influences coming from employment, stocks of purchases and supplier delivery times, offsetting the slower rises in both output and new orders. On the price front, German manufacturers reported a further drop in input costs, citing a lack of pricing power among suppliers and the influence of a strong euro. Competitive pressures meant that goods producers passed on cost savings to customers, resulting in a third straight monthly reduction in average factory gate charges. Meanwhile, goods producers remained relatively optimistic about growth prospects in the year ahead, although the degree of confidence was down slightly from June's recent high.

德国7月制造业PMI终值49.1 vs 49.2。“制造业的复苏仍然缓慢。尽管自年初以来，整体指数几乎一直在持续上升，但仍未达到扩张门槛。

Germany July final manufacturing PMI 49.1 vs 49.2 prelim.“The recovery in the manufacturing sector remains sluggish. Although the headline index has been rising almost continuously since the beginning of the year, the expansion threshold has still not been reached.