德国10年期国债收益率保持在2.74%，接近9月3日以来的最高水平，投资者对PMI数据和财政发展喜忧参半。9月份，德国综合采购经理人指数升至52.4，远高于普遍估计的50.7，这表明私营部门的增长是自2024年5月以来最快的，主要受服务业的推动。然而，制造业的收缩幅度比预期的要大。德国宣布第四季度债券发行量比其12月的预测增加150亿欧元，反映出基础设施和国防的计划支出增加，这也支撑了收益率。本月早些时候，欧洲央行表示，其降息周期可能已经结束，理由是关税、服务、食品价格和财政政策带来的持续通胀风险。

German 10-year Bund yields held at 2.74%, close to their highest level since September 3, as investors processed mixed PMI data and fiscal developments. The German composite PMI rose to 52.4 in September, well above the consensus estimate of 50.7, indicating the fastest private-sector growth since May 2024, driven primarily by services. However, manufacturing contracted more sharply than expected. Yields have also been supported by Germany’s announcement of a €15 billion increase in Q4 bond issuance compared with its December forecast, reflecting higher planned spending on infrastructure and defense. Earlier this month, the ECB signaled that its rate-cutting cycle may be over, citing persistent inflation risks from tariffs, services, food prices, and fiscal policy.

法兰克福DAX指数周二上涨0.6%，收于23660点以上，扭转了周一的跌势，这得益于英伟达与OpenAI合作的消息传出后全球对人工智能的乐观情绪。投资者还在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔当天晚些时候发表的经济展望演讲中有关美联储下一步政策举措的线索，同时关注欧洲最大经济体的最新PMI数据。在国内数据方面，受服务业反弹的推动，德国私营部门活动在9月份意外加速，而制造业继续萎缩。其中，西门子能源上涨2.6%，戴姆勒卡车和保时捷汽车控股分别上涨2.3%和2.2%。

The DAX in Frankfurt rose 0.6% on Tuesday, trading above 23,660 and reversing Monday’s losses, buoyed by global optimism over AI after news of a Nvidia–OpenAI partnership. Investors also awaited clues on the Fed’s next policy moves from an economic outlook speech by US central bank chair Jerome Powell later in the day, while keeping an eye on fresh PMI data from Europe’s largest economies. On the domestic data front, private sector activity in Germany unexpectedly accelerated in September, driven by a rebound in services, while manufacturing continued to contract. Among top movers, Siemens Energy gained 2.6%, while Daimler Truck and Porsche Automobil Holding advanced 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

根据初步估算，HCOB德国服务业采购经理人指数从8月份的49.3升至2025年9月的52.5，超过了市场预测的49.5。该行业现在又回到了增长领域，在经历了五个月的大部分下滑活动后，以今年最快的速度共同扩张。尽管整体复苏，但新订单继续下降，尽管速度较慢，而该行业的裁员速度略有加快。在价格方面，投入成本以4月以来最快的速度增长，推动服务成本通胀进一步高于长期平均水平。公司能够将其中一些更高的费用转嫁给客户，价格以六个月来最快的速度上涨。尽管如此，公司对未来并不十分有信心，因为他们将乐观情绪降低了一个档次。

The HCOB Germany Services PMI rose to 52.5 in September 2025, from 49.3 in August and beating market forecasts of 49.5, according to the flash estimate. The sector is now back in growth territory, expanding at the joint-fastest pace this year after five months of mostly declining activity. Despite the overall recovery, new orders continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace, while job shedding in the sector quickened slightly. On the price front, input costs increased at the fastest pace since April, pushing services cost inflation further above the long-term average. Firms were able to pass on some of these higher expenses to clients, with prices charged rising at the strongest rate in six months. Still, companies were not very confident about the future, as they scaled back their optimism a notch.

根据初步估计，德国HCOB制造业采购经理人指数从8月份的49.8降至2025年9月的48.5，令人惊讶的是市场对稳定在50的预期。该数据标志着四个月来最大的收缩，因为生产继续扩张，但速度比8月份慢，而新订单四个月以来首次下降，这是自1月以来的最大跌幅。出口销售额也连续第二个月下降。公司依靠现有的积压来支持产出，尽管未完成的业务以九个月来最快的速度耗尽。就业人数进一步下降，员工人数以三个月来最快的速度减少。在成本方面，采购价格下降幅度比8月份更大，而产出费用也有所下降。由于需求疲软和运营成本上升，商业预期连续第二个月减弱，低于长期平均水平。

Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.5 in September 2025, down from 49.8 in August, surprising market expectations for stabilization at 50, according to flash estimates. The reading signaled the steepest contraction in four months, as production continued to expand but at a softer pace than in August, while new orders fell for the first time in four months, marking the sharpest decline since January. Export sales also dropped for a second consecutive month. Firms relied on existing backlogs to support output, though outstanding business was depleted at the fastest rate in nine months. Employment fell further, with headcounts shrinking at the quickest pace in three months. On the cost side, purchase prices declined more steeply than in August, while output charges also decreased. Business expectations weakened for a second straight month, slipping below the long-run average amid sluggish demand and elevated operating costs.