德国Ifo降至87.8，复苏前景黯淡。

Germany Ifo falls to 87.8, recovery prospects dim.

德国10年期国债收益率在周一触及2.762%的两周高点后小幅下跌至2.73%，投资者评估了新的经济数据及其对欧洲央行政策的影响。德国Ifo商业景气指数9月下跌1.2点，至87.7，为5月以来的最低水平，低于89.3的预期，反映出对当前状况和未来预期的商业情绪减弱。与此同时，HCOB PMI调查显示，在弹性服务业的推动下，德国私营部门的增长是2024年5月以来最快的，尽管制造业的收缩幅度比预期的要大。在大西洋彼岸，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申了对未来利率决定的谨慎立场，在持续的关税驱动的通胀压力与劳动力市场降温的迹象之间取得了平衡。在美国总统特朗普表示相信乌克兰可以收回目前由俄罗斯控制的所有领土后，地缘政治紧张局势也加剧了。

German 10-year Bund yields edged lower to 2.73%, after hitting a two-week high of 2.762% on Monday, as investors assessed fresh economic data and its implications for ECB policy. The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany dropped 1.2 points to 87.7 in September, the lowest since May and below expectations of 89.3, reflecting weaker business sentiment on both current conditions and future expectations. Meanwhile, the HCOB PMI survey showed Germany’s fastest private-sector growth since May 2024, driven by resilient services, though manufacturing contracted more sharply than anticipated. Across the Atlantic, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious stance on future rate decisions, balancing persistent tariff-driven inflation pressures against signs of a cooling labor market. Geopolitical tensions also intensified after US President Trump expressed confidence that Ukraine could reclaim all territory currently held by Russia.

德国Ifo商业景气指数在2025年9月下跌1.2点，至87.7，低于8月修订后的88.9，也低于市场预期的89.3。该指数为5月以来的最低水平，也是一年来最大的月度跌幅，反映出企业日益悲观。预期（8月份为89.7比91.4）和当前状况（8月份85.7比86.4）均有所减弱，表明围绕美国关税政策的不确定性影响了市场情绪，给欧洲最大经济体的前景蒙上了阴影。

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell 1.2 points to 87.7 in September 2025, down from a revised 88.9 in August and below market expectations of 89.3. The reading marked the lowest since May and the sharpest monthly drop in a year, reflecting growing pessimism among firms. Both expectations (89.7 vs. 91.4 in August) and current conditions (85.7 vs. 86.4) weakened, suggesting uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy has weighed on sentiment, clouding the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.

法兰克福DAX指数周三下跌0.4%，至23500点附近，与欧洲同行一样，杰罗姆·鲍威尔昨日的谨慎言论抑制了风险偏好。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申了谨慎的立场，称美联储在即将作出的利率决定中需要平衡通胀担忧和就业市场疲软。与此同时，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二发出重大政策转变的信号后，地缘政治焦点再次出现，这表明乌克兰可以从俄罗斯手中夺回其所有领土。在数据方面，人们将关注德国Ifo商业景气指数。在股市方面，权重股德意志银行领跌，跌幅超过2%。戴姆勒卡车、Brenntag、西门子医疗、英飞凌科技、默克和阿迪达斯也是跌幅最大的公司之一。从好的方面来看，国防股表现优于特朗普对乌克兰的评论，亨索特上涨3.5%，伦克上涨2.9%，莱茵金属上涨1.4%。

The DAX in Frankfurt fell 0.4% to near 23,500 on Wednesday, alongside European peers, as Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks yesterday dampened risk appetite. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed a prudent stance, saying the US central bank needs to balance inflation concerns with a weakening job market in its coming interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, geopolitical focus returned after US President Donald Trump signaled a major policy shift on Tuesday, suggesting that Ukraine could reclaim all its territory from Russia. On the data front, attention will be on Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index. On equities, heavyweight Deutsche Bank led the losses, falling more than 2%. Daimler Truck, Brenntag, Siemens Healthineers, Infineon Technologies, Merck and Adidas were also among the top decliners. On the upside, defense shares outperformed on Trump's Ukraine comments, with Hensoldt rising 3.5%, Renk adding 2.9%, and Rheinmetall up 1.4%.