德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.71%，为三周多来的最低水平，因为法国和西班牙低于预期的通胀数据加剧了人们对欧洲央行降息的预期。法国通胀率稳定在0.9%，而不是像预期的那样上升，而西班牙通胀率急剧放缓至2.2%，接近欧洲央行2%的目标。交易员们现在预计今年将降息60个基点，相当于至少两次降息，第三次降息的可能性为40%。这些数据为下周发布关键报告之前更广泛的欧元区通胀趋势提供了早期洞察。更不确定的是，特朗普新宣布的对进口汽车征收25%的关税威胁着德国的汽车行业，近四分之一的欧盟汽车出口将流向美国。定于4月2日征收的关税可能会通过增加供应链的成本进一步削弱欧洲的增长。作为回应，欧盟正在考虑采取反制措施，包括自特朗普第一任期以来加强贸易防御工具。
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell to 2.71%, its lowest in over three weeks, as weaker-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain fueled expectations of ECB rate cuts. French inflation held steady at 0.9% instead of rising as predicted, while Spanish inflation slowed sharply to 2.2%, nearing the ECB’s 2% target. Traders are now pricing in 60 basis points of rate cuts this year, equivalent to at least two reductions, with a 40% chance of a third. These figures offer early insight into broader Eurozone inflation trends ahead of key reports next week. Adding to uncertainty, Trump’s newly announced 25% tariffs on imported vehicles threaten Germany’s auto sector, with nearly a quarter of EU car exports heading to the U.S. The tariffs, set for April 2, could further weaken European growth by increasing costs across supply chains. In response, the EU is considering countermeasures, including trade-defense tools strengthened since Trump’s first term.
