德国6月份年度CPI通胀率降至2%。Destatis周一公布的初步估计显示，以消费者价格指数（CPI）变化衡量的德国通货膨胀率从5月份的2.1%降至6月份的2%。

Germany annual CPI inflation edges lower to 2% in June.Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2% in June from 2.1% in May, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Monday.

德国10年期政府债券收益率跌至2.6%以下，因投资者对新数据以及欧洲央行和美联储降息预期的增长做出了回应。在美国总统特朗普7月9日最后期限前全球贸易谈判的不确定性和持续的地缘政治紧张局势下，市场也保持谨慎。在国内数据方面，德国6月份的通胀率意外降至2%，自2024年10月以来首次达到欧洲央行的目标。此外，5月份零售额大幅下降，表明消费者需求疲软。货币市场继续将欧洲央行的最终利率定在1.75%-1.80%左右，欧洲央行副行长德金多斯重申目前的政策立场是适当的，但强调在持续的不确定性面前需要灵活性。与此同时，由于劳动力市场降温的迹象和部分由美国关税驱动的通胀压力，预计美联储今年将至少降息两次25个基点。

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield slipped below 2.6% as investors responded to fresh data and growing expectations of interest rate cuts from both the ECB and the US Fed. Markets also remained cautious amid uncertainty over global trade negotiations ahead of US President Trump’s July 9 deadline and persistent geopolitical tensions. On the domestic data front, Germany’s inflation unexpectedly eased to 2% in June, matching the ECB’s target for the first time since October 2024. In addition, retail sales declined sharply in May, signaling weak consumer demand. Money markets continue to price the ECB’s terminal rate at around 1.75%–1.80%, with ECB Vice President de Guindos reiterating that the current policy stance is appropriate but emphasizing the need for flexibility in the face of ongoing uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to implement at least two 25bps rate cuts this year, amid signs of a cooling labor market and inflationary pressures driven in part by US tariffs.

据初步估计，德国的年度消费者价格通胀率从5月份的2.1%降至2025年6月的2.0%，低于市场预期的2.2%。这标志着自2024年10月以来的最低水平，并使通货膨胀率自那时以来首次恢复到欧洲央行的目标水平。服务通胀从上月的3.4%略微放缓至3.3%，而商品通胀从0.9%降至0.8%。下降的主要原因是食品通胀放缓（2.0%对2.8%）和能源价格下跌（-3.5%对-4.6%）。不包括食品和能源的核心通胀率降至2.7%的三个月低点。按月计算，继5月份上涨0.1%之后，6月份消费者价格持平。

Germany’s annual consumer price inflation eased to 2.0% in June 2025, down from 2.1% in May and below market expectations of 2.2%, according to a preliminary estimate. This marks the lowest level since October 2024 and brings inflation back in line with the European Central Bank’s target for the first time since then. Service inflation moderated slightly to 3.3% from 3.4% in the previous month, while goods inflation fell to 0.8% from 0.9%. The decline was mainly driven by a slowdown in food inflation (2.0% vs 2.8%) and a drop in energy prices (-3.5% vs -4.6%). Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, dipped to a three-month low of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat in June, following a 0.1% increase in May.

德国DAX指数周一下跌，跌破24000点，交易员权衡疲软的经济数据，等待贸易谈判的明确结果。德国5月份零售额下降1.6%，而前一个月下降0.6%，突显出消费者持续疲软。与此同时，6月份三个主要州的通货膨胀有所降温，尽管全国通货膨胀率为2.2%，略高于5月份的2.1%。在贸易方面，特朗普总统表示，他不打算将暂停对大多数国家征收关税的90天延长到7月9日之后，届时他设定的谈判期将到期。华盛顿和北京上周恢复了稀土运输，台湾、印度和日本发出了加强贸易往来的信号。加拿大寻求恢复与美国的谈判，将在7月21日的最后期限之前取消其数字服务税。跌幅最大的包括德意志银行、宝马、拜耳、梅赛德斯-奔驰集团、大众汽车和Brenntag。另一方面，国防类股表现最好。

Germany’s DAX index drifted lower on Monday, falling beneath the 24,000 level as traders weighed soft economic data and awaited clarity on trade negotiations. Retail sales in Germany dropped 1.6% in May, following a 0.6% fall in the prior month, underscoring continued consumer weakness. Meanwhile, inflation cooled in three major states in June, although national inflation is seen at 2.2%, up marginally from May's 2.1%. On the trade front, President Trump said he is not planning to extend a 90-day pause on tariffs on most nations beyond July 9, when the negotiating period he set would expire. Washington and Beijing resumed rare earth shipments last week, with Taiwan, India, and Japan signaling increasing trade engagement. Canada, seeking to revive talks with the US, is scrapping its digital services tax before the July 21 deadline. Top losers included Deutsche Bank, BMW, Bayer, Mercedes Benz Group, Volkswagen and Brenntag. On the flip side, defense stocks were the best performers.