富时MIB指数本周二微涨0.1%，收于40743点，投资者继续评估欧洲贸易和增长前景。欧盟和美国最近达成的贸易协定有助于减少不确定性，即使关税率高于许多人的预期。在企业方面，Amplifon（+4.2%）、Nexi（+2.4%）和法拉利（+2.3%）领涨。相比之下，尽管上半年同比销售额增长6.5%，达到21.9亿欧元，但在建筑集团下调2025年预期后，Buzzi股价下跌8.7%。该公司指出，美国的建筑投资疲软，尤其是在私营部门，尽管中欧和东欧的复苏抵消了部分下降。尽管如此，在欧洲大陆取得一系列良好业绩后，主要数据提供商上调了对欧洲收益的预测。

The FTSE MIB edged up 0.1% to close at 40,743 this Tuesday, as investors continued to assess the outlook for European trade and growth. The recent trade agreement between the EU and the US helped reduce uncertainty, even if the tariff rate was higher than many anticipated. On the corporate front, Amplifon (+4.2%), Nexi (+2.4%), and Ferrari (+2.3%) led gains. In contrast, Buzzi fell 8.7% after the construction group cut its 2025 guidance, despite a 6.5% rise in like-for-like sales to €2.19 billion in H1. The company noted weaker construction investment in the US, especially in the private sector, though recovery in Central and Eastern Europe offset some of the decline. Still, major data providers revised their forecasts on European earnings higher following a batch of good results across the continent.

HCOB意大利服务业采购经理人指数从6月的52.1微升至2025年7月的52.3，但低于市场预测的52.6。新订单继续增长，尽管增长速度是六个月来最慢的，这得益于销售业绩和营销工作的改善。由于新的出口订单减少，该行业的需求稳定在很大程度上仍局限于国内市场。与此同时，创造就业机会的上升趋势延长至六个月，尽管劳动力扩张率略低于6月份。积压的工作也再次略有下降。在价格方面，尽管工资、燃料和服务的持续上涨压力，但投入成本通胀已降至2024年11月以来的最低水平。然而，公司以更快的速度提高了售价，达到了15个月来的最高点。最后，在新客户和项目的预期以及宏观经济状况改善的希望的支撑下，未来一年的情绪达到了2024年10月以来的最高水平。

The HCOB Italy Services PMI edged up to 52.3 in July 2025 from 52.1 in June, but missing market forecasts of 52.6. New orders continued to grow, albeit at the slowest pace in six months, supported by improved sales performance and marketing efforts. Demand stability in the sector remained largely confined to the domestic market, as new export orders declined. Meanwhile, the upward trend for job creation was extended to six months, although the rate of workforce expansion was slightly weaker than in June. Backlogs of work also fell slightly once again. Regarding prices, input cost inflation eased to its lowest level since November 2024, despite continued upward pressure from wages, fuel, and services. However, firms raised their selling prices at a faster pace, reaching a 15-month high. Lastly, sentiment for the year ahead hit its highest level since October 2024, underpinned by expectations of new clients and projects, as well as hopes for improved macroeconomic conditions.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率降至3.4%，达到6月中旬以来的最低水平，因为投资者消化了低于预期的美国就业数据、持续的欧元区通胀以及围绕美国新关税经济影响的不确定性。7月，美国新增就业人数低于预期，前几个月的数据大幅下调，导致市场预计美联储今年将再降息两次，可能从9月开始。与此同时，货币市场预测，到2025年底，欧洲央行降息的可能性约为60%，到2026年3月将增至80%。预计欧洲央行将谨慎行事，密切关注美国贸易政策和通胀趋势的影响。7月份欧元区通胀率稳定在2.0%，略高于1.9%的预测，连续第二个月与欧洲央行的目标相匹配。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield declined toward 3.4%, reaching its lowest level since mid-June, as investors digested weaker-than-expected US jobs data, persistent Eurozone inflation, and uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of new US tariffs. In July, US job additions fell short of forecasts, with significant downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leading markets to price in two more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year—possibly beginning in September. Meanwhile, money markets assign roughly a 60% probability of a European Central Bank rate cut by the end of 2025, increasing to 80% by March 2026. The ECB is expected to proceed cautiously, closely monitoring the influence of US trade policies and inflation trends. Eurozone inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, slightly above the 1.9% forecast and matching the ECB’s target for the second consecutive month.

HCOB意大利综合采购经理人指数从6月的51.1微升至2025年7月的51.5，表明第三季度初私营部门增长温和。服务业继续推动扩张（PMI为52.3），而制造业产出再次下降（PMI为49.8）。这一部门划分反映在新订单上：总体流入仅略有增长，出口订单下降，尽管下降速度比6月份有所放缓。就业人数小幅上升，但增速放缓，因为这两个行业的积压工作继续下降，尤其是制造业。尽管投入成本压力减弱，为去年11月以来的最低水平，但企业仍以15个月来最快的速度提高了售价，这表明需求或利润率正在复苏。

The HCOB Italy Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.5 in July 2025 from 51.1 in June, signaling modest private sector growth at the start of Q3. The expansion continued to be driven by services (PMI at 52.3), while manufacturing output fell again (PMI at 49.8). This sectoral split was mirrored in new orders: overall inflows grew only slightly, and export orders declined, though the pace of decline eased from June. Employment rose modestly but at a softer pace, as backlogs of work continued to fall across both sectors, especially in manufacturing. Despite softer input cost pressures, the weakest since last November, firms raised their selling prices at the fastest rate in 15 months, suggesting resilient demand or margin recovery.