意大利10年期英国国债收益率仍略高于3.4%，徘徊在10月中旬以来的最高水平附近，因为投资者在对美国政府可能关门决议的乐观情绪与对欧洲央行和美联储利率政策和意大利财政前景的预期之间取得了平衡。最近的欧元区数据表明，经济具有弹性，通胀符合目标，这表明欧洲央行在可预见的未来可能会保持利率不变，货币市场目前认为，到2026年9月，欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性约为40%。在大西洋彼岸，在美国数据凸显劳动力市场疲软和消费者信心急剧下降后，对12月美联储降息的预期有所上升。在意大利，议会正在审查政府的预算法案，预计赤字将从2024年的3.4%缩小到2025年的3.0%，这可能使意大利最早在2026年退出欧盟的过度赤字程序。

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield remained slightly above 3.4%, hovering near its highest level since mid-October, as investors balanced optimism over a potential US government shutdown resolution with expectations for ECB and Fed interest rate policy and Italy’s fiscal outlook. Recent Eurozone data pointed to a resilient economy and inflation on target, signaling that the ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, with money markets currently assigning about a 40% probability of a 25bp ECB rate cut by September 2026. Across the Atlantic, expectations for a December Fed rate cut rose after US data highlighted a weakening labor market and a sharp decline in consumer sentiment. In Italy, the government’s budget bill is under review in Parliament, with the deficit projected to narrow to 3.0% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024, potentially allowing Italy to exit the EU’s excessive deficit procedure as early as 2026.