意大利10年期政府债券收益率扭转早盘涨势，降至3.52%，为7月23日以来的最低水平，此前美国就业报告弱于预期，加剧了人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。7月份的数据显示，美国经济仅增加了73000个工作岗位，远低于10万个预测，而5月和6月的就业数据也大幅下调。作为回应，市场将美联储9月份降息的可能性从发布前的45%大幅提高到75%。相比之下，对欧洲央行进一步放松货币政策的预期仍然相对温和。尽管欧元区通胀率预计仍将高于欧洲央行的近期预测，但市场目前认为，到12月降息25个基点的可能性为60%，高于美国报告前的50%。7月份欧元区消费者通胀率稳定在2.0%，略高于1.9%的市场预期。投资者还权衡了新宣布的美国关税的经济影响，其中包括对来自欧盟的进口商品征收15%的关税。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield reversed early gains to fall to 3.52%, its lowest level since July 23, after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report intensified concerns over labor market softness. The July data showed the US economy added just 73,000 jobs, well below the 100,000 forecast, while May and June’s job numbers were also revised sharply lower. In response, markets raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 75%, up sharply from 45% prior to the release. In contrast, expectations for further monetary easing by the ECB remain relatively muted. While eurozone inflation is projected to remain above the ECB’s near-term forecasts, markets now price in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by December—up from 50% before the US report. Euro area consumer inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, slightly above the 1.9% market estimate. Investors also weighed the economic implications of newly announced US tariffs, which include a 15% duty on imports from the EU.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率小幅上涨至3.55%，因投资者权衡了新实施的美国关税和新的欧元区通胀数据的影响。美国的有效关税率已从年初的略高于2%飙升至15%左右，为20世纪30年代以来的最高水平。在8月1日截止日期前最后一刻达成协议后，欧盟现在对其对美国的出口征收15%的关税。在通胀方面，7月份欧元区消费者价格同比上涨2.0%，连续第二个月达到欧洲央行的目标，但略高于市场预测的1.9%。核心通胀率稳定在2.3%。随着未来几个月整体通胀率预计仍将高于欧洲央行的预期，进一步降息的可能性已经降低。在美国，美联储主席鲍威尔的鹰派语气进一步降低了市场对9月会议降息的预期。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield rose slightly to 3.55% as investors weighed the impact of newly implemented US tariffs and fresh Eurozone inflation data. The effective US tariff rate has surged to around 15%, up from just over 2% at the beginning of the year—its highest level since the 1930s. The EU now faces a 15% tariff on its exports to the US, following a last-minute deal reached just before the August 1 deadline. On the inflation side, Eurozone consumer prices increased by 2.0% year-on-year in July, matching the ECB’s target for a second straight month but slightly exceeding market forecasts of 1.9%. Core inflation held steady at 2.3%. With headline inflation projected to remain above ECB expectations in the coming months, the probability of further rate cuts has diminished. In the US, Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone has further dampened market expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting.

2025年6月，意大利零售额较上月增长0.6%，从6月0.4%的下降中反弹，明显高于市场预期的0.2%的增长。该数据与最近的GDP报告一致，该报告强调了意大利经济的国内需求增强，尽管自欧洲和美国之间的贸易战威胁以来，经济不确定性水平有所上升。零售业受到食品大幅反弹的支撑（5月份为1.4%对-0.8%），而非食品类商品的营业额略有增长（0.1%对0%）。与去年相比，零售业增长了1%。

Retail sales in Italy jumped by 0.6% from the previous month in June of 2025, rebounding from the 0.4% decline in June and firmly above market expectations of a 0.2% expansion. The data was consistent with the recent GDP report that highlighted stronger domestic demand in the Italian economy, despite the heightened level of economic uncertainty since the threat of trade wars between Europe and the US. Retail was supported by a sharp rebound in food goods (1.4% vs -0.8% in May), while turnover for non-food goods gained some slight traction (0.1% vs 0%). From the previous year, retail expanded by 1%.

HCOB意大利制造业采购经理人指数从6月份的48.4升至2025年7月的49.8，超出了市场预期的49.0。这标志着自2024年3月以来制造业收缩速度最慢，接近稳定。新订单仅略有下降，而产量下降幅度较上月有所缓和。就业人数连续第十个月下降，但下降的主要原因是自愿离职，而不是裁员。尽管人员配备水平较低，但各公司继续处理积压的工作，尽管速度比6月份慢。在定价方面，由于原材料成本上涨，7月份投入和产出价格三个月来首次上涨。展望未来，商业信心有所改善，这得益于对经济和地缘政治状况的乐观态度、新产品的推出以及最近赢得的客户，这些都提振了增长预期。

The HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in July 2025, up from 48.4 in June and beating market expectations of 49.0. This marked the slowest pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector since March 2024, edging closer to stabilization. New orders declined only marginally, while the drop in output was less pronounced than the previous month. Employment fell for the tenth consecutive month, though the decline was primarily due to voluntary departures rather than layoffs. Despite the lower staffing levels, firms continued to work through backlogs, albeit at a slower rate than in June. On the pricing front, both input and output prices rose in July for the first time in three months, driven by higher raw material costs. Looking ahead, business confidence improved, supported by optimism around economic and geopolitical conditions, the launch of new products, and recent client wins that bolstered growth expectations.