HCOB意大利服务业采购经理人指数从6月的52.1微升至2025年7月的52.3，但低于市场预测的52.6。新订单继续增长，尽管增长速度是六个月来最慢的，这得益于销售业绩和营销工作的改善。由于新的出口订单减少，该行业的需求稳定在很大程度上仍局限于国内市场。与此同时，创造就业机会的上升趋势延长至六个月，尽管劳动力扩张率略低于6月份。积压的工作也再次略有下降。在价格方面，尽管工资、燃料和服务的持续上涨压力，但投入成本通胀已降至2024年11月以来的最低水平。然而，公司以更快的速度提高了售价，达到了15个月来的最高点。最后，在新客户和项目的预期以及宏观经济状况改善的希望的支撑下，未来一年的情绪达到了2024年10月以来的最高水平。

The HCOB Italy Services PMI edged up to 52.3 in July 2025 from 52.1 in June, but missing market forecasts of 52.6. New orders continued to grow, albeit at the slowest pace in six months, supported by improved sales performance and marketing efforts. Demand stability in the sector remained largely confined to the domestic market, as new export orders declined. Meanwhile, the upward trend for job creation was extended to six months, although the rate of workforce expansion was slightly weaker than in June. Backlogs of work also fell slightly once again. Regarding prices, input cost inflation eased to its lowest level since November 2024, despite continued upward pressure from wages, fuel, and services. However, firms raised their selling prices at a faster pace, reaching a 15-month high. Lastly, sentiment for the year ahead hit its highest level since October 2024, underpinned by expectations of new clients and projects, as well as hopes for improved macroeconomic conditions.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率降至3.4%，达到6月中旬以来的最低水平，因为投资者消化了低于预期的美国就业数据、持续的欧元区通胀以及围绕美国新关税经济影响的不确定性。7月，美国新增就业人数低于预期，前几个月的数据大幅下调，导致市场预计美联储今年将再降息两次，可能从9月开始。与此同时，货币市场预测，到2025年底，欧洲央行降息的可能性约为60%，到2026年3月将增至80%。预计欧洲央行将谨慎行事，密切关注美国贸易政策和通胀趋势的影响。7月份欧元区通胀率稳定在2.0%，略高于1.9%的预测，连续第二个月与欧洲央行的目标相匹配。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield declined toward 3.4%, reaching its lowest level since mid-June, as investors digested weaker-than-expected US jobs data, persistent Eurozone inflation, and uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of new US tariffs. In July, US job additions fell short of forecasts, with significant downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leading markets to price in two more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year—possibly beginning in September. Meanwhile, money markets assign roughly a 60% probability of a European Central Bank rate cut by the end of 2025, increasing to 80% by March 2026. The ECB is expected to proceed cautiously, closely monitoring the influence of US trade policies and inflation trends. Eurozone inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, slightly above the 1.9% forecast and matching the ECB’s target for the second consecutive month.

HCOB意大利综合采购经理人指数从6月的51.1微升至2025年7月的51.5，表明第三季度初私营部门增长温和。服务业继续推动扩张（PMI为52.3），而制造业产出再次下降（PMI为49.8）。这一部门划分反映在新订单上：总体流入仅略有增长，出口订单下降，尽管下降速度比6月份有所放缓。就业人数小幅上升，但增速放缓，因为这两个行业的积压工作继续下降，尤其是制造业。尽管投入成本压力减弱，为去年11月以来的最低水平，但企业仍以15个月来最快的速度提高了售价，这表明需求或利润率正在复苏。

The HCOB Italy Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.5 in July 2025 from 51.1 in June, signaling modest private sector growth at the start of Q3. The expansion continued to be driven by services (PMI at 52.3), while manufacturing output fell again (PMI at 49.8). This sectoral split was mirrored in new orders: overall inflows grew only slightly, and export orders declined, though the pace of decline eased from June. Employment rose modestly but at a softer pace, as backlogs of work continued to fall across both sectors, especially in manufacturing. Despite softer input cost pressures, the weakest since last November, firms raised their selling prices at the fastest rate in 15 months, suggesting resilient demand or margin recovery.

周二早盘，富时MIB指数上涨0.2%，至约40770点，继续从上周的抛售中复苏。在就业增长低于预期引发对美国经济健康状况的担忧后，人们对美国9月降息的预期上升，支撑了这一涨幅。与此同时，当地投资者本周将关注更多主要金融和工业公司的盈利报告。在其他新闻中，法国农业信贷银行将其在Banco BPM的股份提高到略高于20%，这是意大利不断发展的银行业格局中的一项大胆举措。此前，联合信贷银行上个月放弃了对BPM的收购要约。在该时段的早期表现最好的是Campari（+2.3%）、Mediobanca（+1.2%）、Banco BPM（+1.1%）和Amplifon（+1.3%）。

The FTSE MIB rose 0.2% to around 40,770 in early trading on Tuesday, continuing its recovery from last week's sell-off. The gains were supported by rising expectations of a US interest rate cut in September, after a weaker-than-expected employment growth raised concerns about the health of the American economy. Meanwhile, local investors are focusing on more earnings reports from major financial and industrial firms this week. In other news, French bank Crédit Agricole raised its stake in Banco BPM to just over 20%, making a bold move in Italy’s evolving banking landscape. This comes after UniCredit last month dropped its takeover bid for BPM. Among the session’s early top performers were Campari (+2.3%), Mediobanca (+1.2%), Banco BPM (+1.1%), and Amplifon (+1.3%).