周四，日本10年期政府债券收益率升至1.58%，此前贸易数据低于预期。2025年6月，贸易顺差从一年前的2213亿日元降至1531亿日元，远低于预测的3539亿日元。由于美国关税的不断变化，出口同比下降0.5%，至91626亿日元，这是连续第二个月下降，未达到0.5%的增长预期。出口持续疲软加剧了人们对日本经济可能在第二季度收缩的担忧，这可能会使其陷入技术性衰退。与此同时，进口小幅增长0.2%，至90095亿日元，超出了1.6%的下降预期，这是三个月来的首次增长。投资者现在将注意力转向即将于7月20日举行的上议院选举，因为越来越多的人猜测政府可能会推出新的财政刺激措施，包括增加公共支出甚至削减消费税，以刺激经济增长。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 1.58% on Thursday, following weaker-than-expected trade figures. The trade surplus shrank to JPY 153.1 billion in June 2025, from JPY 221.3 billion a year earlier and well below the forecasted JPY 353.9 billion. Exports fell 0.5% year-on-year to JPY 9,162.6 billion—marking a second consecutive monthly decline and missing expectations for a 0.5% rise—amid evolving US tariffs. The ongoing weakness in exports has heightened concerns that Japan’s economy may contract in Q2, potentially pushing it into a technical recession. Meanwhile, imports inched up 0.2% to JPY 9,009.5 billion, defying expectations for a 1.6% drop and marking the first increase in three months. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Upper House election on July 20, amid growing speculation that the government may unveil new fiscal stimulus measures, including increased public spending or even a cut to the consumption tax, in a bid to spur growth.

周四，日元兑美元汇率跌至148左右，投资者对令人失望的贸易数据做出了反应，这加剧了人们对潜在技术性衰退的担忧。2025年6月，日本贸易顺差从一年前的2213亿日元收窄至1531亿日元，远低于市场预期的3539亿日元顺差。出口同比下降0.5%，至91626亿日元，标志着连续第二个月下降，未达到0.5%的增长预期。这一下降是由美国关税运动的持续压力推动的，这引发了人们对日本经济可能在第二季度再次收缩的担忧，并可能将其推入技术性衰退。相反，进口增长0.2%，至90095亿日元，这是三个月来的首次增长，好于预期的1.6%的下降。与此同时，在7月20日上议院选举之前，投资者正在关注潜在的财政刺激措施，因为人们猜测政府将增加支出，并可能削减消费税以促进经济增长。

The Japanese yen fell to around 148 per dollar on Thursday, as investors reacted to disappointing trade figures that fueled concerns about a potential technical recession. Japan’s trade surplus narrowed to JPY 153.1 billion in June 2025, from JPY 221.3 billion a year earlier and well below market expectations of a JPY 353.9 billion surplus. Exports fell 0.5% yoy to JPY 9,162.6 billion—marking a second straight monthly decline and missing forecasts of a 0.5% gain. The drop was driven by continued pressure from the US tariff campaign, raising fears that Japan’s economy may contract again in Q2 and potentially pushing it into a technical recession. Conversely, imports rose 0.2% to JPY 9,009.5 billion—the first increase in three months and better than expectations of a 1.6% decline. Meanwhile, investors are eyeing potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the July 20 Upper House election, amid speculation over more government spending and a possible consumption tax cut to boost economic growth.

日本大选将如何影响经济政策？。日本自民党执政联盟可能会在周日的选举中失去上议院的多数席位，这可能会加剧对政府增加支出和减税的呼吁。

How could Japan's election affect economic policy?.Japan's Liberal Democratic Party ruling coalition may lose its majority in the upper house in an election on Sunday, which could heighten calls for the government to boost spending and cut tax.

日经225指数下跌0.5%，至39439点左右，而更广泛的东证指数在周四上午的交易中下跌0.1%，至2816点，因为在美国总统特朗普重申他打算对日本征收25%的关税后，交易员们仍然保持谨慎。日经指数在前一交易日持平后，跌至三周多来的最低水平。在日本即将于7月20日举行的上议院选举之前，也建立了谨慎的态度。最新贸易数据进一步打压市场情绪，6月份贸易顺差较去年同期收窄。出口意外下降，而进口意外增长。在特朗普总统否认解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的计划后，隔夜华尔街的乐观情绪限制了下跌。能源矿产、非能源矿产和科技股是该指数的主要拖累因素。最落后的是东丽工业（-3.4%）、东京电子（-3.1%）、Minebea Mitsumi（-2.6%）、日产汽车（-2.5%）和Advantest Corp.（-2.3%）。

The Nikkei 225 Index dropped 0.5% to around 39,439, while the broader Topix Index fell 0.1% to 2,816 during Thursday morning trading, as traders remained cautious after US President Trump reiterated his intention to impose a 25% tariff on Japan. The Nikkei hit its lowest level in over three weeks, after being flat in the previous session. Caution was also built ahead of Japan’s upcoming Upper House election on July 20. The latest trade data further pressured sentiment, as the trade surplus narrowed in June compared to the same month last year. Exports unexpectedly fell, while imports surprisingly grew. Limiting the decline was an upbeat session on Wall Street overnight, after President Trump denied plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Energy minerals, non-energy minerals, and tech stocks were the main drags on the index. Among the biggest laggards were Toray Industries (-3.4%), Tokyo Electron (-3.1%), Minebea Mitsumi (-2.6%), Nissan Motor (-2.5%), and Advantest Corp. (-2.3%).