日经225指数下跌1.3%，至50220点左右，而更广泛的东证指数周五下跌0.5%，至3297点，抹去了前一交易日的涨幅，并在对人工智能估值过高和美国劳动力市场放缓迹象的重新担忧下，追踪了华尔街隔夜科技股的抛售。美国主要人工智能股票暴跌，包括Nvidia、AMD、Palantir、微软和博通。在日本，软银集团（-7.6%）因其对人工智能投资的大量敞口而领跌，其次是Advantest（-6.4%）、藤仓（-3.1%）和Disco Corp（-4.3%）。工业和消费类股也走弱，三菱重工（-2.4%）、IHI公司（-4.1%）、味之素（-2.5%）和三丽鸥（-1.1%）的跌幅明显。与此同时，数据显示，日本9月份家庭支出增长低于预期。本周，日经指数和东证指数预计将分别下跌约4%和1%。

The Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.3% to around 50,220 while the broader Topix Index lost 0.5% to 3,297 on Friday, erasing gains from the previous session and tracking a tech-led selloff on Wall Street overnight amid renewed concerns about lofty AI valuations and signs of a slowing US labor market. Major US AI stocks slumped, including Nvidia, AMD, Palantir, Microsoft, and Broadcom. In Japan, SoftBank Group (-7.6%) led the decline due to its heavy exposure to AI investments, followed by Advantest (-6.4%), Fujikura (-3.1%), and Disco Corp (-4.3%). Industrial and consumer names also weakened, with notable losses from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (-2.4%), IHI Corp (-4.1%), Ajinomoto (-2.5%), and Sanrio (-1.1%). Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s household spending rose less than expected in September. For the week, the Nikkei and Topix are on track to lose about 4% and 1%, respectively.

美元/日元触及阻力位：看跌信号警告潜在顶部。美元/日元可以说是最不稳定的外汇货币对，今年肯定保持了其声誉，不断出现上涨和下跌趋势。

USD/JPY Hits Resistance: Bearish Signal Warns of a Potential Top.USD/JPY, arguably the most volatile FX currency pair, has certainly held its reputation this year with a constant flurry of uptrends and downtrends.

2025年9月，日本家庭支出同比增长1.8%，低于市场预期的2.5%，较上月2.3%的增长有所放缓。尽管有所放缓，但这标志着个人支出连续第五个月增长，表明消费者活动持续复苏，尽管速度较慢。 交通和通信（8月份为11.5%对13.5%）以及文化和娱乐（6.4%对12.2%）的支出增长速度较慢。与此同时，食品（-0.5%对-1.2%）、住房（-7.0%对-0.7%）、燃料、照明和水费（-2.4%对4.7%）、教育（-6.0%对16.9%）以及服装和鞋类（-7.4%对5.4%）的支出疲软。相比之下，医疗保健支出加速（11.1%对1.7%），而 家具和家居用品（0.5%对-6.8%）。按月计算，个人支出下降0.7%，扭转了8月份0.6%的增长，这是三个月来的首次下降。

Household spending in Japan rose 1.8% yoy in September 2025, missing market estimates of 2.5% and easing from a 2.3% growth in the prior month. Despite the moderation, it marked the fifth straight month of increase in personal expenditure, indicating a continued, though slower, recovery in consumer activity. Expenditures grew at milder pace for transportation & communication (11.5% vs 13.5% in August) and culture & recreation (6.4% vs 12.2%). Simultaneously, spending was weak for food (-0.5% vs -1.2%), housing (-7.0% vs -0.7%), fuel, light & water charges (-2.4% vs 4.7%), education (-6.0% vs 16.9%), and clothing & footwear (-7.4% vs 5.4%). In contrast, expenditures accelerated for medical care (11.1% vs 1.7%) while rebounded for furniture & household items (0.5% vs -6.8%). On a monthly basis, personal spending fell 0.7%, reversing a 0.6% rise in August and marking the first decline in three months.

日元预测：美元/日元上涨，因支出疲软导致日本央行加大赌注。日本消费降温和工资势头缓和提振了美元/日元，干预风险和美联储削减投机影响了该货币对的短期走势。

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rises as Weak Spending Tempers BoJ Hike Bets.Cooling Japanese consumption and easing wage momentum lift USD/JPY, with intervention risks and Fed cut speculation influencing the pair's short-term direction.