Elliott Wave观点：美元兑日元目标完成7轮震荡反弹。美元兑日元表现出源自2025年4月22日低点的不完整看涨序列，预示着进一步上涨的潜力。我们可以预测这次反弹的极端目标区域，可以使用4月22日低点的100%至161.8%的斐波那契扩展来预测。

Elliott Wave Perspective: USDJPY Targets Completion of 7 Swing Rally.The USDJPY pair exhibits an incomplete bullish sequence originating from the April 22, 2025 low, signaling potential for further upside. We can project the extreme target area for this rally can be projected using using the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the April 22 low.

2025年6月，日本房屋开工量同比下降15.6%，略好于市场预期的15.8%的下降，并从5月份的34.4%的暴跌中有所缓解，这是自2009年9月以来的最大跌幅。这标志着连续第三个月的下降，但也是最温和的，因为关键类别的收缩放缓：自有（-16.4%对-30.9%）、租赁（-14.0%对-30.5%）、待售建筑（-17.9%对-43.8%）和两套四居室（-5.7%对-26.4%）。另一方面，预制房屋开工量略有下降（-9.6%对-9.3%），而已发行单元的增长从5月份的76.7%急剧放缓至10.2%。

Japan’s housing starts fell 15.6% year-on-year in June 2025, slightly better than market expectations of a 15.8% drop and easing from May’s sharp 34.4% plunge—the steepest since September 2009. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline but the mildest in the sequence, as contractions slowed across key categories: owned (-16.4% vs -30.9%), rented (-14.0% vs -30.5%), built-for-sale (-17.9% vs -43.8%), and two-by-four homes (-5.7% vs -26.4%). On the other hand, prefabricated housing starts declined slightly more (-9.6% vs -9.3%), while growth in issued units moderated sharply to 10.2% from 76.7% in May.

2025年7月，日本消费者信心指数从6月的四个月高点34.5降至33.7，低于市场预测的35.1。经济衰退受到所有组成部分恶化的影响：整体生计（31.4比6月的32.4）、收入增长预期（38.5比38.9）、就业前景（37.6比38.3）和购买耐用品的意愿（27.4比28.2）。

Japan’s consumer confidence index declined to 33.7 in July 2025, down from June’s four-month high of 34.5, and below market forecasts of 35.1. The downturn was weighed by deterioration across all components: overall livelihood (31.4 vs 32.4 in June), income growth expectations (38.5 vs 38.9), employment outlook (37.6 vs 38.3), and willingness to purchase durable goods (27.4 vs 28.2).

周四，日本央行一致决定维持利率不变，日本10年期政府债券收益率保持在1.57%左右，正如普遍预期的那样。这标志着日本央行在1月份加息25个基点至0.5%后连续第四次暂停会议。央行保持谨慎的基调，预计潜在通胀可能会因增长放缓而暂时停滞，然后再次回升。尽管通胀前景保持平衡，但日本央行指出了整体经济的下行风险，并指出全球贸易发展的不确定性增加。上周，在美国和日本敲定了一项贸易协议，对日本出口产品征收15%的关税后，日本政府债券收益率有所上升，这比唐纳德·特朗普总统最初提出的25%的关税要轻。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held around 1.57% on Thursday after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, as widely expected. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting the BOJ has paused following its 25 basis-point hike to 0.5% in January. The central bank maintained a cautious tone, projecting that underlying inflation may temporarily stall due to slowing growth before picking up again. While the inflation outlook remains balanced, the BOJ flagged downside risks to the broader economy and cited elevated uncertainty around global trade developments. Last week, Japanese government bond yields had risen after the US and Japan finalized a trade deal setting a 15% tariff on Japanese exports, less severe than the 25% initially proposed by President Donald Trump.