日本央行以鸽派倾向聚焦于模糊的潜在通胀趋势。日本央行对加息越来越谨慎，这在很大程度上取决于相对模糊的通胀数据，政策鸽派认为这表明消费者需求疲软，但批评人士表示，这扰乱了该行的信息传递。

In dovish tilt, BOJ zooms in on obscure underlying inflation trends.The Bank of Japan's increasing caution around raising interest rates further relies heavily on a relatively obscure inflation reading, which policy doves argue suggests weak consumer demand but critics say messes with the bank's messaging.

日经225指数周五上涨1.3%，至40100点左右，而更广泛的东证指数上涨1.1%，至2835点，因为日本股市在华尔街走强后反弹至数月高点。白宫淡化了即将到来的关税最后期限的紧迫性，缓解了投资者对长期贸易战的担忧，市场情绪有所改善。发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，截止日期是灵活的，可以延长。与此同时，投资者权衡了新的数据，显示东京的核心通胀率在6月份有所放缓，但仍远高于日本央行2%的目标，维持了进一步加息的预期。主要指数成分股领涨，包括迪斯科（上涨5.9%）、东京电子（4.6%）、三菱重工（2.1%）、川崎重工（6.2%）和软银集团（1.5%）。

The Nikkei 225 rose 1.3% to around 40,100 on Friday, while the broader Topix Index advanced 1.1% to 2,835, as Japanese equities rallied to multi-month highs following a strong session on Wall Street. Market sentiment improved after the White House downplayed the urgency of upcoming tariff deadlines, easing investor concerns over a prolonged trade war. Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt indicated the deadlines were flexible and could be extended. Meanwhile, investors weighed fresh data showing Tokyo’s core inflation slowed in June but remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, sustaining expectations for further rate hikes. Gains were led by major index constituents, including Disco (up 5.9%), Tokyo Electron (4.6%), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (2.1%), Kawasaki Heavy Industries (6.2%), and SoftBank Group (1.5%).

2025年6月，东京Ku地区的核心消费价格同比上涨3.1%，较5月份的3.6%有所回落，低于市场预期的3.3%。这标志着自2月以来核心通胀首次放缓，尽管该利率仍远高于日本央行2%的目标，维持了进一步加息的预期。日本央行行长上田和夫最近表示，如果持续的工资增长支持消费者支出，并使企业能够转嫁更高的成本，央行可能会继续加息——这些条件被视为将通胀稳定在2%目标附近的关键。尽管如此，日本央行最新的《意见摘要》语气更为谨慎，政策制定者强调，在全球贸易紧张局势和地缘政治不确定性持续存在的情况下，保持宽松立场的重要性。

Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s Ku-area rose 3.1% year-on-year in June 2025, easing from a 3.6% increase in May and falling short of market expectations of 3.3%. This marks the first slowdown in core inflation since February, though the rate remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, sustaining expectations for further interest rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently signaled that the central bank may continue raising rates if sustained wage growth supports consumer spending and enables firms to pass on higher costs—conditions seen as critical to anchoring inflation around the 2% goal. Still, the BOJ’s latest Summary of Opinions struck a more cautious tone, with policymakers stressing the importance of maintaining an accommodative stance amid ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.

2025年5月，日本零售额同比增长2.2%，低于上个月向上修正的3.5%的增长率，也低于市场预期的2.7%的增长率。这标志着零售销售连续第38个月增长，但为2月以来最慢增速，工资上涨继续支撑消费。服装和个人用品（7.2%）、机械设备（5.8%）、药品和化妆品（4.6%）、其他零售商（4.4%）、汽车（2.4%）、非商店零售商（1.4%）和食品饮料（1.4%）的销售额增长。相比之下，百货商店的销售额下降了（-6.1%），而燃料销售额持平。按月计算，5月份零售额下降0.2%，扭转了4月份向上修正的0.7%的增长。这标志着今年迄今为止的第二次月度下降。

Retail sales in Japan increased by 2.2% year-on-year in May 2025, down from an upwardly revised 3.5% rise in the previous month and below market expectations of 2.7% growth. This marked the 38th consecutive month of retail sales growth, but the slowest pace since February, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales increased for clothing & personal goods (7.2%), machinery & equipment (5.8%), pharmaceuticals & cosmetics (4.6%), other retailers (4.4%), automobiles (2.4%), non-store retailers (1.4%), and food & beverages (1.4%). In contrast, sales declined at department stores (-6.1%), while fuel sales were flat. On a monthly basis, retail sales fell by 0.2% in May, reversing an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in April. This marked the second monthly decline so far this year.