日元在避险需求中走强；美元/日元受到美元疲软的压力。日元在避险需求中走强；美元/日元受到美元疲软的压力

Japanese Yen strengthens amid safe-haven demand; USD/JPY under pressure on weaker USD.Japanese Yen strengthens amid safe-haven demand; USD/JPY under pressure on weaker USD

日本央行田村敦促加快向中性利率迈进，警告不要落后于曲线。日本央行董事会成员田村直树（Naoki Tamura）是央行最鹰派的政策制定者之一，他在9月的会议上投票支持加息25个基点，重申了他呼吁加快向中性政策立场转变的呼吁。在今天的一次演讲中，他表示，目前的立场仍然“远离中性利率”，此前加息对国内经济的影响“极其有限”。

BoJ's Tamura urges faster move toward neutral rate, warns against falling behind the curve.BoJ board member Naoki Tamura, one of the central bank's most hawkish policymakers, who voted for a 25bps hike at the September meeting, reiterated his call for a faster shift toward a neutral policy stance. In a speech today, he said the current stance remains “far away from the neutral interest rate” the impact of prior rate hikes on the domestic economy has been “extremely limited.

周四，日元兑美元汇率超过151日元，连续第三个交易日上涨，因为上周与公明党的联盟解体后，自民党领袖高一成为下一任首相的道路仍然高度不确定。执政党提议在10月21日举行领导层投票，尽管反对党尚未同意这一日期。此前因预计高一将采取激进的财政支出和持续的货币宽松政策而做空日元的交易员在政治不确定性日益增加的情况下扭转了这些立场。与此同时，日本央行董事会成员田村直树警告不要过早收紧政策，强调需要避免物价和工资重回停滞状态。在美中贸易紧张局势升级、美国政府长期停摆和美联储发出鸽派信号的情况下，避险资金流入和美元走弱提供了额外支持。

The yen strengthened past 151 per dollar on Thursday, rising for the third straight session as the path for Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi to become the next prime minister remains highly uncertain following the coalition breakup with the Komeito party last week. The ruling party proposed holding a leadership vote on Oct. 21, though opposition parties have not yet agreed to the date. Traders who previously shorted the yen on expectations that Takaichi would pursue aggressive fiscal spending and continued monetary accommodation have since reversed those positions amid growing political uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura cautioned against tightening policy too soon, stressing the need to avoid a return to stagnant prices and wages. Additional support came from safe-haven inflows and a weaker dollar amid escalating US-China trade tensions, the prolonged US government shutdown and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.

日本央行董事会成员田村直树警告不要过早收紧货币政策，称日本必须避免回到物价和工资停滞的时期。今天在大阪的一次演讲中，他警告说，不要让通货膨胀持续超过适度水平。他说：“如果利率相对于通货膨胀率过低，存款的实际价值将继续下降，退休人员等没有从工资上涨中受益的家庭将继续面临困难时期。”。田村认为，日本央行不应急于将利率上调至限制性水平，但他指出，随着通胀风险向上倾斜，该行目前正处于考虑加息以使政策更接近中性的阶段。关于外部因素，他表示，日本经济将无法免受美国关税政策的影响，但他补充说，随着全球经济恢复适度扩张，增长可能会加强，海外经济放缓可能没有人们担心的那么严重。

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura warned against premature monetary tightening, saying Japan must avoid returning to a period of stagnant prices and wages. In a speech in Osaka today, he cautioned against allowing inflation to persist beyond moderate levels. “If interest rates are too low relative to the inflation rate, the real value of deposits will continue to decrease, and households that do not benefit from wage increases, such as retirees, will continue to face difficult times,” he said. Tamura argued the BoJ should not rush to raise rates to restrictive levels but noted that with inflation risks tilting upward, the bank is now in a phase of considering rate hikes to bring policy closer to neutral. On external factors, he said Japan’s economy will not be immune to the impact of U.S. tariff policies but added that growth could strengthen as global economies return to a moderate expansion, with the overseas slowdown likely less severe than feared.