周一，新西兰元上涨至0.604美元左右，从上一交易日的下跌中恢复过来，因为有迹象表明，以色列-伊朗冲突可能不会进一步升级，投资者解除了一些避险头寸。虽然市场现在预计紧张局势将得到控制，但双方都誓言要继续报复，因此一些谨慎仍然存在。考虑到中国作为主要贸易伙伴的作用，新西兰元还得到了5月份中国零售销售强于预期的支撑，尽管工业产出疲软缓和了乐观情绪。在国内，最近的一项PMI调查显示，服务业仍处于深度收缩状态，这是自2024年6月以来的最大跌幅。市场目前预计，新西兰联储可能会在11月前再次降息，投资者正在等待本周的关键本地数据，包括食品通胀、消费者信心和第一季度国内生产总值，以获取有关经济前景的进一步线索。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.604 on Monday, recovering from losses in the previous session, as investors unwound some risk-off positions amid signs that the Israel-Iran conflict may not escalate further. While markets now expect the tensions to remain contained, some caution lingers with both sides vowing continued retaliation. The Kiwi also found support from stronger-than-expected Chinese retail sales in May, given China’s role as a major trade partner, although weaker industrial output tempered the optimism. Domestically, a recent PMI survey showed the services sector remained deep in contraction, marking its sharpest decline since June 2024. Markets are now pricing in just one more rate cut from the RBNZ, likely by November, with investors awaiting key local data this week—including food inflation, consumer confidence, and Q1 GDP—for further clues on the economic outlook.

周一，新西兰基准标准普尔/新西兰证交所50指数上涨超过1%，收于12690点，受能源相关股票上涨的支撑，中东紧张局势升级之际油价上涨的支撑。Channel Infrastructure NZ领涨能源股，上涨近2%，而发电商Meridian energy（+1.4%）、Mercury NZ（+1.5%）和Contact energy（+1.5%.）也稳健上涨。尽管如此，随着中东紧张局势继续影响风险情绪，以色列和伊朗在周末交换了罢工，两国都誓言要进一步报复，谨慎态度依然存在。与此同时，市场消化了好于预期的中国零售销售数据，鉴于中国作为主要贸易伙伴的作用，这些数据提供了一些支持。然而，低于预期的工业产出缓和了乐观情绪。在国内，一项新的PMI调查显示，服务业仍处于深度收缩状态，最新数据标志着自2024年6月以来的最大跌幅。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index jumped over 1% to close at 12,690 on Monday, supported by gains in energy-related stocks, supported by rising oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Channel Infrastructure NZ led the advance among energy stocks, climbing nearly 2%, while electricity generators Meridian Energy (+1.4%), Mercury NZ (+1.5%), and Contact Energy (+1.5%) also posted solid gains. Still, caution lingered as Middle East tensions continued to weigh on risk sentiment, with Israel and Iran exchanging strikes over the weekend, and both nations vowing further retaliation. Meanwhile, markets digested better-than-expected Chinese retail sales data, which provided some support given China’s role as a major trade partner. However, weaker-than-forecast industrial output tempered the optimism. Domestically, a fresh PMI survey showed that the services sector remained deeply in contraction, with the latest reading marking the sharpest decline since June 2024.

周一，新西兰元稳定在0.60美元左右，因为一系列中国数据帮助抵消了一些地缘政治风险。5月份，中国零售额的增长超出预期，鉴于中国作为主要贸易伙伴的角色，这为新西兰元提供了一些支持。然而，低于预期的工业产出缓和了乐观情绪。与此同时，中东的紧张局势继续抑制风险情绪，以色列和伊朗周日连续第三天相互打击，两国都发誓要继续报复。在国内，一项新的PMI调查显示，服务业仍处于深度收缩状态，最新数据标志着自2024年6月以来的最大跌幅。疲软的数据增加了经济疲软的迹象，加强了储备银行进一步降息的理由。交易员们正在等待本周公布的一系列关键经济数据，包括食品通胀、消费者信心和第一季度GDP，以进一步了解经济健康状况。

The New Zealand dollar stabilized around $0.60 on Monday as a slew of Chinese data helped offset some geopolitical risks. Chinese retail sales rose more than expected in May, providing some support to the Kiwi given China’s role as a major trade partner. However, weaker-than-expected industrial output tempered the optimism. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continued to dampen risk sentiment, as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for a third consecutive day on Sunday, with both nations vowing to continue retaliating. Domestically, a fresh PMI survey showed that the services sector remained deeply in contraction, with the latest reading marking the steepest decline since June 2024. The weak data added to signs of a sluggish economy, strengthening the case for further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank. Traders are now awaiting a series of key economic data releases this week—including food inflation, consumer confidence, and Q1 GDP—for further insights into the economy’s health.

新西兰BNZ服务业下滑至44.0，经济再次陷入衰退。新西兰服务业在5月份急剧下滑，新西兰商业服务绩效指数从48.1暴跌至44.0，为2024年6月以来的最低水平。由于企业报告需求普遍疲软，活动和新订单领跌，分别从46.7和50.2降至40.1和43.2。

NZ BNZ services slumps to 44.0, economy returning to recession.New Zealand's services sector took a steep turn downward in May, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index plunging from 48.1 to 44.0, the lowest reading since June 2024. Activity and new orders led the decline, falling from 46.7 and 50.2 to 40.1 and 43.2 respectively, as businesses reported broad-based weakness in demand.