由于克里姆林宫严格的资本管制和鹰派货币政策，7月份俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为78，为两年来最高。俄罗斯政府延长了强制公司出售外汇的措施，构建了对卢布的人为需求。新规定要求公司在2026年4月之前出售40%的收益，尽管克里姆林宫表示，公司正在出售70%的收益。与此同时，俄罗斯经济放缓和西方制裁继续阻碍国内企业进口商品和服务，给国内硬通货需求带来压力。在政策方面，CBR在上次会议上将基准利率下调100个基点至20%，但借贷成本仍接近2024年最后一个季度以来的历史最高水平。最后，市场对美国总统特朗普的威胁不屑一顾，即如果普京不同意在9月中旬前在乌克兰停火，将对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收关税。
The Russian ruble was at 78 per USD in July, its strongest in two years, amid tight capital controls by the Kremlin and hawkish monetary policy. The Russian government extended measures that mandate companies to sell their foreign exchange, structuring an artificial demand for rubles. The new mandate has companies selling 40% of proceeds until April 2026, although the Kremlin has stated that firms are selling 70% of their earnings. In the meantime, the slowing Russian economy and sanctions from the West continued to prevent domestic businesses from importing goods and services, pressuring domestic demand for hard currency. On the policy front, the CBR lowered its benchmark rate by 100bps to 20% in its last meeting, but borrowing costs remained close to their record high held since the final quarter of 2024. Lastly, markets brushed off threats by US President Trump to impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil should Putin not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine by mid-September.
