2025年4月25日,俄罗斯央行将关键利率维持在21%的历史新高,与市场预期一致。央行指出,尽管包括核心通胀在内的通胀压力正在逐渐缓解,但仍处于高位。它还警告说,全球经济增长进一步放缓和油价下跌,特别是在贸易紧张局势加剧的情况下,可能会通过卢布汇率动态增加通胀压力。与此同时,央行预计2025年通货膨胀率将放缓至7.0%-8.0%,到2026年将恢复到4.0%。3月份,俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率上升至10.3%。央行将2025年经济增长预测维持在1%-2%不变,并重申货币政策将在较长一段时间内保持紧缩,以确保通胀恢复到目标水平。
The Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record high of 21% on April 25th 2025, aligning with market expectations. The central bank noted that although inflationary pressures, including core inflation, are gradually easing, they remain elevated. It also cautioned that a further slowdown in global economic growth and a drop in oil prices, especially amid rising trade tensions, could add inflationary pressure through the ruble's exchange rate dynamics. Meanwhile, the central bank expects inflation to slow to 7.0–8.0% in 2025 and return to 4.0% by 2026. In March, Russia’s annual inflation rate rose to 10.3%. The central bank left its 2025 economic growth forecast unchanged at 1%–2% and reaffirmed that monetary policy will remain tight for an extended period to ensure inflation returns to target.