8月份，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率降至13.5%，为15个月来的最低水平，因为利率下降的前景和俄罗斯与乌克兰战争结束后前景的增长支持了所有期限的债券。在特朗普会见乌克兰和欧盟领导人之前，普京总统会见了美国总统特朗普，讨论了停火或结束战争可以接受的条款，这表明美国愿意促成和平协议。与此同时，较低的通货膨胀率和悲观的增长前景加强了俄罗斯央行从目前18%的降息周期延长的理由。价格增长连续第四个月下降至8.8%，为九个月来的最低水平，与CBR降低通胀的呼吁一致。反过来，国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际金融机构预计，俄罗斯经济今年的增长率将低于1.5%，这是自2016年排除疫情和战争冲击以来的最低水平。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ sank to 13.5% in August, the lowest in 15 months, as the outlook of lower interest rates and the growing prospects on the end of the Russian war with Ukraine supported bonds across all maturities. President Putin met with US counterpart Trump to discuss terms that could be accepted on a ceasefire or end of war before Trump met with Ukrainian and EU leaders, exemplifying the US's willingness to broker an agreement for peace. In the meantime, lower inflation and pessimistic growth prospects strengthened the case for the Bank of Russia to extend its cutting cycle from the current rate of 18%. Price growth fell for a fourth straight month to 8.8%, the lowest in nine months, and aligned with the CBR's call of lower inflation. In turn, international financial institutions in the IMF and World Bank expect the Russian economy to grow less than 1.5% this year, the least since 2016 when excluding pandemic and war shocks.

自8月初以来，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率一直保持在80美元的水平，自今年7月以来，由于俄罗斯央行利率下调的前景，俄罗斯卢布的反弹达到两年来的最高点76.8，因此略有走弱。在通胀率降至9个月低点8.8%后，预计央行将从目前的18%延长降息周期。尽管如此，由于克里姆林宫的资本管制，人民币今年迄今仍上涨了40%。莫斯科的授权要求公司出售40%的出口收益，尽管克里姆林宫表示，公司出售了70%的收益。与此同时，俄罗斯经济放缓阻碍了国内企业进口商品和服务。在地缘政治方面，在普京总统会见美国总统特朗普讨论潜在条款后，停火或结束俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的前景也支持了俄罗斯的资产。欧盟对结束与乌克兰的战争的开放态度也支持了俄罗斯的资产。

The Russian ruble held at the 80 per USD level since the start of August, slightly weaker since its rally this year topped at a two-year high of 76.8 from July due to the outlook of lower rates by the CBR. The central bank is expected to extend its cutting cycle from the current rate of 18% after inflation softened to nine-month low of 8.8%. Still, the currency remained 40% higher year-to-date due to capital controls by the Kremlin. Moscow's mandate has companies selling 40% of export proceeds, although the Kremlin has stated that firms are selling 70% of their earnings. In the meantime, the slowing Russian economy prevents domestic businesses from importing goods and services. On the geopolitical front, the prospect of a ceasefire or end to Russia's invasion of Ukraine also supported Russian assets after President Putin met with US counterpart Trump to discuss potential terms. The EU's openness to an end to the war with Ukraine giving up territory also supported Russian assets.

由于希望俄罗斯结束对乌克兰的战争，MOEX俄罗斯指数在8月份上涨至3000点，涨幅为10%。普京总统在阿拉斯加会见了美国总统特朗普，讨论了停火或结束入侵的潜在条款，随后美国接待了乌克兰总统泽伦斯基和欧洲领导人，以征求他们对可接受条款的看法。与此同时，印度表示，尽管美国对其征收更高的关税，但仍将继续购买俄罗斯石油，支持俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司分别达到3月和6月以来的最高交易水平。俄罗斯股市延长了与全球股市走势无关的时期，对全球宏观发展反应甚微，因为西方对俄罗斯的一系列制裁使其金融部门脱离了全球发展。高通胀水平的放缓增加了CBR进一步降息的可能性，目前为18%，尽管今年的增长目前预计将放缓至1.4%。

The MOEX Russia Index rose to the 3,000 mark to gain 10% in August amid hopes of an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. President Putin met with US counterpart Trump in Alaska to discuss potential terms to a ceasefire or an end of the invasion, followed by the US hosting Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders for their take on acceptable terms. In the meantime, India signaled it would continue to buy Russian oil despite higher tariffs from the US in doing so, supporting Rosneft and Lukoil to trade at their highest since March and June, respectively. Russian stocks extending the period of no correlation to movements in global equity markets and little response to global macro developments, as the series of Western sanctions against Russia detached its financial sector to global developments. A slowdown in the high level of inflation raised the likelihood of more rate cuts by the CBR, currently at 18%, although growth for this year is currently expected to slow to 1.4%.

俄罗斯在2025年第二季度公布了73亿美元的经常账户盈余，与向下修正的177亿美元相比大幅收窄。这是自2020年第四季度以来俄罗斯经常账户盈余的最低水平，当时疫情危机引发了俄罗斯出口商品价值的暴跌。由于中国能源需求放缓，第二季度商品顺差从去年的301亿美元收窄至272亿美元。自2022年西方制裁以来，中国一直是俄罗斯大宗商品出口的主要客户。反过来，服务赤字从78亿美元扩大到129亿美元，而一级和二级账户缺口总额从46亿美元扩大至70亿美元。

Russia posted a current account surplus of $7.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025, narrowing sharply from the downwardly revised $17.7 billion. It was the lowest current account surplus for Russia since the fourth quarter of 2020, when the pandemic crisis triggered plunges in the value of commodities that Russia exports. The surplus of goods narrowed to $27.2 billion in the second quarter from $30.1 billion in the previous year, pressured by slowing demand for energy from China, which has been the main costumer for heavyweight commodity exports for Russia since Western sanctions from 2022. In turn, the deficit for services widened to $12.9 billion from $7.8 billion, while the primary and secondary account gap aggregates widened to $7 billion from $4.6 billion.