2025年5月，瑞典的贸易顺差从去年同期的106亿瑞典克朗收窄至39亿瑞典克朗。这标志着自去年12月以来的最小顺差，因为出口下降幅度大于进口。出境出货量同比下降9.6%，至1696亿瑞典克朗，对欧盟和非欧盟国家的销售额分别下降5.1%和14.4%。与此同时，进口下降6.4%，至1657亿瑞典克朗，受欧盟（-3.1%）和非欧盟国家（-12.8%）采购的拖累。经季节性调整后，贸易顺差从前一个月的78亿瑞典克朗扩大到82亿瑞典克朗。今年前五个月，瑞典的贸易顺差扩大到481亿瑞典克朗，而去年同期为477亿瑞典克朗。

Sweden’s trade surplus narrowed to SEK 3.9 billion in May 2025, down from SEK 10.6 billion in the same month last year. This marked the smallest surplus since last December, as exports fell more sharply than imports. Outbound shipments declined by 9.6% year-on-year to SEK 169.6 billion, with sales to the EU and non-EU countries shrinking by 5.1% and 14.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, imports dropped 6.4% to SEK 165.7 billion, weighed down by purchases from the EU (-3.1%) and non-EU countries (-12.8%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus widened to SEK 8.2 billion from SEK 7.8 billion in the previous month. For the first five months of the year, Sweden’s trade surplus widened to SEK 48.1 billion, compared to SEK 47.7 billion in the same period last year.

瑞典5月贸易差额从之前的66亿降至39亿。瑞典5月贸易差额从之前的66亿降至39亿

Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) fell from previous 6.6B to 3.9B in May.Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) fell from previous 6.6B to 3.9B in May

随着该国经济复苏放缓和通货膨胀缓解，瑞典央行在6月份将政策利率下调25个基点至2%，符合预期。最近的数据显示，经济增长疲软，失业率居高不下，而通货膨胀与之前的预测一致，但由于需求疲软，预计将略低于之前的预测。降息旨在将通胀稳定在目标水平并支持经济。央行还表示，今年晚些时候有可能再次降息。贸易紧张局势和不断升级的中东冲突造成的全球不确定性继续影响着前景。尽管金融市场有所平静，一些关税可能低于此前的预期，但地缘政治风险仍然很高。在国内，实际工资的上涨提供了一些支持，但复苏的步伐比预期的要慢。货币政策的未来路径将取决于新的数据及其对通胀和增长预期的影响。

The Swedish Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bps to 2% in June, in line with expectations, as the country's economic recovery slows and inflation eases. Recent data shows weaker growth and persistently high unemployment, while inflation has aligned with previous forecasts but is expected to fall slightly below earlier projections due to weaker demand. The rate cut aims to stabilize inflation at target and support the economy. The central bank also signaled a possibility of another cut later this year. Global uncertainty, driven by trade tensions and the escalating Middle East conflict, continues to weigh on the outlook. Although financial markets have calmed somewhat and some tariffs may be lower than previously anticipated, geopolitical risks remain high. Domestically, rising real wages offer some support, but the pace of recovery is slower than expected. The future path of monetary policy will depend on new data and how it affects inflation and growth expectations.

2025年5月，瑞典的失业率上升至9.7%，远高于去年同期的8.7%。这是自1月以来的最高水平，失业人数比去年同期增加了6.5万人，达到56.1万人，就业人数也增加了4.4万人，达523万人。就业率上升0.3个百分点至68.6%，劳动力参与率上升1.1个百分点至76%。平均每周工作总小时数为1.674亿。经季节性调整后，失业率稳定在8.7%，与去年同期持平。

Sweden’s unemployment rate rose to 9.7% in May 2025, well above 8.7% in the same month of the previous year. This marked the highest level since January, as the number of unemployed people increased by 65 thousand from a year earlier to 561 thousand, while employment also rose by 44 thousand to 5.23 million. The employment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 68.6%, and the labor force participation rate climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 76%. The average total number of hours worked per week amounted to 167.4 million. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate held steady at 8.7%, unchanged from the same period last year.