正如普遍预期的那样，泰国央行在2025年6月的政策会议上将基准利率保持在1.75%不变。货币政策委员会以6比1的投票结果支持维持目前的利率，目前的利率仍处于2023年4月以来的最低水平。预计2025年和2026年的总体通胀率将分别保持在0.5%和0.8%，而核心通胀率也将保持在较低水平，2025年为1%，2026年为0.9%。2025年5月，泰国消费者价格下跌0.57%，标志着连续第二个月出现通货紧缩。与此同时，预计2025年泰国经济将增长2.3%，2026年将增长1.7%。2025年第一季度，经济同比增长3.1%，超过了2.9%的预期，但与上一季度修正后的3.3%增长相比有所缓和。委员会注意到，经济前景仍然高度不确定，但重申其准备根据需要调整货币政策，以应对不断变化的经济状况、风险和通货膨胀动态。

The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75% during its June 2025 policy meeting, as widely expected. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-1 in favor of maintaining the current rate, which remains at its lowest level since April 2023. Headline inflation is projected to stay at just 0.5% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, while core inflation is also expected to remain low, at 1% for 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Consumer prices in Thailand fell by 0.57% in May 2025, marking the second consecutive month of deflation. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The economy expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding expectations of 2.9%, but easing from a revised 3.3% growth in the previous quarter. The Committee noted that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain but reaffirmed its readiness to adjust monetary policy as needed in response to evolving economic conditions, risks, and inflation dynamics.

周四，SET 50指数下跌超过1%，收于690点，跌至2020年3月以来的最低水平，政治紧张局势加剧打压了市场情绪。联盟第二大党的退出对总理帕通塔兰·西那瓦（Paetongtarn Shinawatra）造成了重大打击，她现在面临着辞职的呼声，此前她指责自己的军队助长了与柬埔寨的边界争端。西那瓦和柬埔寨参议院议长洪森之间的录音发布后，危机进一步加深。与此同时，泰国当局正准备在本月晚些时候启动一项“企业价值提升计划”，该计划被视为在市场表现疲软和参与度下降的情况下恢复投资者信心的关键举措。基准指数今年已下跌约23%。整个交易所都出现了广泛的下跌，Advanced Info Service（-2.2%）、海湾能源开发（-3.1%）、CP All（-3.9%）和曼谷Dusit（-2.9%）的跌幅明显。

The SET 50 index fell more than 1% toward 690 on Thursday, sliding toward its lowest levels since March 2020, as rising political tensions weighed on sentiment. The withdrawal of the coalition’s second-largest party dealt a major blow to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who now faces calls to resign after accusing her own military of fueling a border dispute with Cambodia. The crisis deepened following the release of an audio recording between Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. Meanwhile, Thai authorities are preparing to launch a “corporate value enhancement program” later this month, seen as a key effort to restore investor confidence amid weak market performance and declining participation. The benchmark index has now fallen about 23% this year. Losses were broad-based across the bourse, with notable declines from Advanced Info Service (-2.2%), Gulf Energy Development (-3.1%), CP All (-3.9%), and Bangkok Dusit (-2.9%).

由于出口超过进口，泰国2025年5月的贸易顺差从去年同期的6.6亿美元增至11.2亿美元。出口同比激增18.4%，连续第11个月增长，比4月份的10.2%大幅加速。这标志着自2022年3月以来的最快速度，这是在特朗普总统于4月宣布暂停对泰国出口征收36%关税的计划90天后，工厂急于发货的结果。与此同时，进口也大幅攀升，同比增长18%，高于4月份的16.1%，标志着连续第12个月的扩张，也是自2022年8月以来的最快增速。进口增长得益于曼谷150亿美元经济刺激计划后国内需求的复苏。尽管5月份出现顺差，但该国在2025年前五个月的贸易逆差为11.2亿美元，进出口分别增长14.9%和11.3%。

Thailand’s trade surplus rose to USD 1.12 billion in May 2025, up from USD 0.66 billion in the same month last year, as exports outpaced imports. Exports surged 18.4% year-on-year, the eleventh consecutive month of growth and a sharp acceleration from April’s 10.2% rise. This marked the fastest pace since March 2022, driven by a rush by factories to ship goods after President Trump announced a 90-day pause in April on plans to impose a 36% levy on Thai exports. Meanwhile, imports also climbed sharply, rising 18% year-on-year — up from a 16.1% increase in April, marking the twelfth straight month of expansion and the fastest pace since August 2022. The import growth was fueled by a recovery in domestic demand following Bangkok’s USD 15 billion economic stimulus package. Despite the May surplus, the country posted a trade deficit of USD 1.12 billion over the first five months of 2025, with exports and imports rising 14.9% and 11.3%, respectively.

2025年5月，泰国的进口额同比增长18.0%，达到299.2亿美元的新高，比4月份的16.1%增长更快，标志着连续第12个月增长。这也是自2022年8月以来最快的增长，得益于曼谷150亿美元的刺激计划旨在保护经济免受日益增长的全球压力，特别是美国关税的影响，国内需求进一步上升。资本货物（41.1%）、原材料、半成品（19.3%）、消费品（10.1%）和运输设备（23.8%）的进口增长，但燃料产品（-11.8%）和其他产品（-4.8%）的进口下降。在商品方面，大多数类别的采购量都有所增加：计算机和零部件（157.9%）、珠宝、宝石、白银（142.0%）、机械和零部件（24.1%）、钢铁（20.0%）和汽车零部件（16.6%）。相比之下，原油（-13.7%）、电路板（-12.9%）和植物产品（-12.6%）的到货率下降。今年前五个月，进口增长了11.3%。

Imports to Thailand grew 18.0% yoy to a fresh high of USD 29.92 billion in May 2025, accelerating from a 16.1% rise in April and marking the 12th straight month of increase. It was also the fastest growth since August 2022, boosted by a further rise in domestic demand following Bangkok’s US$15 billion stimulus package aiming at shielding the economy from mounting global pressures, notably the effects of U.S. tariffs. Imports rose for capital goods (41.1%), raw materials, semi-finished products (19.3%), consumer goods (10.1%), and transport equipment (23.8%), but fell for fuel products (-11.8%) and others (-4.8%). Commodity-wise, purchases gained for most categories: computers and components (157.9%), jewelry, gems, silver (142.0%), machinery & components (24.1%), iron and steel (20.0%), and auto components (16.6%). By contrast, arrivals fell for crude oil (-13.7%), circuit board (-12.9%), and plant products (-12.6%). For the first five months of the year, imports expanded 11.3%.